friday, march 21, 2008 , chaitra 7, rabiul awal 12, 1428 a.h

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Leading News

Truth Commission to start work soon
National Security Council under consideration

Rabiul Islam

The Truth or Accountability Commission will start work either from 1st April or 1st day of Bengali New Year, a member of the three-member commission said. According to the commission, all corrupt people will get chance to escape jail after confessing to financial crimes and paying fines. Law Adviser A F Hassan Ariff at a weekly briefing at the Secretariat on Thursday said the truth commission will be formed within a month. The Government is constituting the commission to avoid the long trial process of big corrupt suspects, he said. The Law Adviser observed that if the truth commission was formed earlier, the trial of corrupt suspects could be expedited. Asked whether the Anti-Corruption Commission has any objection to the truth commission, Arif said, "We have not received any objections or reservations from the ACC". On the commission’s influence on the existing judicial system, he said it will not destabilise the judicial system. Asked if there will be any discrimination in the application of the commission, the Law Adviser said there is no scope of discrimination within the structure of the law of the truth commission.
On the formation of the much-talked about National Security Council, he said the issue is being discussed at various levels. "It is still at a primary stage as what will be the nature and responsibility of the council, is being discoursed", the law adviser said, adding the draft is yet to come in the Law Ministry. Asked on what grounds the Government has initiated to form such a council, Ariff said if there is such a body, national disaster like the deterioration of law and order and cyclones can be faced. Besides, in view of the security concept in the 21st century, the Government is considering such a security council, he added. Asked who will be included in the council, Ariff said the President, the Prime Minister and the Armed forces, all who are involved in running the country, will be in the council.
On amendment of Foreigners’ Act, he said the act is being amended as the existing one is very old and it requires to be updated. Asked whether the existing law allow the foreigners to interfere in our politics, the law adviser asserted the law doesn’t allow that. In reply to another query whether the Government would take any step in this regard, he said steps are being taken. The Home Ministry would not allow arranging of press conference by foreigners, he added. On foreign diplomats, he said their affairs are different as they are diplomats and the foreign ministry can say about that.


 Finance Adviser invites concrete proposals for safety net to face food price

UNB, Dhaka

Finance Adviser Dr Mirza Azizul Islam on Thursday said the government has no option other than the ongoing interventions to mitigate hardship of the people due to high prices of food.
"We’ve no other option at this moment without strengthening and widening the ongoing social safety net programmes," he told reporters, replying to a question after a pre-budget meeting with editors of print and electronic media at the Finance Ministry.
The Adviser said all the quarters he has so far met in pre-budget discussions, including the economists, former finance advisers and finance secretaries, were of the opinion that something has to be done as the family budget is failing to buy food.
"What could be that ‘something’? Nobody came up with any concrete suggestion," he said.
Replying to a question, he said feeding 1.5 crore people with 1-1.5 kg rice free of cost is not possible. "One has to think of the resources required to feed them free."
Dr Aziz said that the present subsidy regime needs to be adjusted to some extent to make it sustainable. "We’ve not yet decided to reduce or increase the subsidy," he said, replying to a question.
The Finance Adviser said there is a wrong perception that the government could have utilized a little part of the high reserve of foreign exchange to help bring down the food prices.
"It’s not a government property and, at the same time, it’s not too high a reserve considering the absolute requirement of keeping a reserve equivalent to three months of import payments," he said.
He added that the reserve that rose just over US$ 6 billion was not too big in view of the increased bills for food import. Until March 15 of the current fiscal year, rice import stood at 30 lakh tonnes, which is 6 lakh tonnes higher than the total import of 24 lakh tonnes in the previous fiscal year.
"Financing for the increased import would have been difficult unless we had that reserve position," said the Adviser.
Dr Aziz said the media representatives asked whether the government would be able to maintain the present growth of revenue collection in the future, and whether the government could reduce unproductive expenditure.
They also stressed the need for accelerating ADP implementation. They recommended giving more emphasis on the agriculture sector in view of the high food prices, and considering more incentives for agro-based industries like jute and sugar mills. About increased incentives to agro-based industries, the Adviser told the meeting that the industries would have to increase their productivity and efficiency.
He said the main incentive for RMG industry is duty-free import of raw materials under bonded facility. But agro-based industries have no such scope as they use local raw materials.
About ADP implementation, he apprised the editors that the government’ s attention was diverted from the development works due to floods and later the cyclone Sidr.
Increase in prices of construction materials also hindered the progress of development works, he added.


 Govt should consider dialogues with political parties before declaring budget: Dr Akbar

UNB, Dhaka

Regulatory Reforms Commission (RRC) Chairman Dr Akbar Ali Khan on Thursday suggested the caretaker government to consider holding dialogues with the political parties before adopting the national budget sans parliament.
He apprehended that the upcoming budget that is to be presented to the nation without parliament in place for a second time during the present regime would not be acceptable to the political parties if their suggestions were not taken into consideration.
"I fear that the next elected government will cancel the budget as some parties already have given such hints. Awami League presidium member Tofail Ahmed in an interview has spoken in this vein. So, I think, the government should consider dialogues with the political parties on the budget," he said.
He was talking to journalists after a seminar titled "PRSP and Next Budget: Share of the Coastal People" held at the CIRDAP auditorium in the morning.
Shamannay, Community Development Centre (CODEC) and the Daily Prothom Alo jointly arranged the pre-budget seminar. Shamannay chairman Dr Atiur Rahman presented a keynote. The prominent bureaucrat, who has also served as a top executive of the World Bank, also talked on the demerits of the donor-sponsored Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (PRSP) as development policy for Bangladesh. He observed that the present Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (PRSP) is "date-expired" for which it cannot create any impact on the country’s development. "We are now working with a PRSP which expired in 2007. I don’t understand why the government is following the old PRSP, as the existing PRSP is no more applied."
"You can follow a strategy paper when its hypotheses remain realistic and proved true. But most of the hypotheses done by the present PRSP proved not true. It had said country’s inflation would increase not above 5 percent by 2007. Even the mentally retarded people of Pabna Mental Hospital will not agree to such hypothesis!" Akbar Ali said. It had also been stated in the PRSP that total investment would increase at 26 percent, which also proved unrealistic, he observed.
"Another ridiculous matter with the PRSP is that it said that pure drinking water would be available to 100 percent people of the country by 2007. Just give a look at the city. Where we are not able to provide necessary water, PRSP has said that pure drinking water would be available to 100 percent people by 2007. So how we can expect country’s development following such a PRSP?" he wondered. Now the country needs a realistic poverty-reduction strategy paper that will judge and address country’s problems considering diversity of needs, region and ecology.
" I had worked with World Bank as executive representative of Bangladesh. I found that PRSP for all the countries are more or less same. PRSP for Bangladesh and PRSP for an African country carry no difference," he said.
Even poverty-reduction strategy cannot be same for all the people of a country. " People living in the coastal areas are facing one type of problems and mainland areas are facing another type of problems. Even you will find various dissimilarities between the problems of two coastal belts—Khulna-Barisal and Noakhali-Chittagong."
"Hence PRSP will have to be formulated as per the variations of problems of the respective regions. Otherwise PRSP like the present one cannot put any positive impact on the country’s total development," he said.
The former adviser also said that there should be special adequate allocation for the people of coastal districts in the upcoming budget as last year’s Sidr has caused a severe loss to public life there. The budget should include employment scheme, projects for development of the damaged infrastructures in the coastal districts and the number of Vulnerable Group Feeding (VGF) cards must be increased to make it available for all poor people. The former adviser of the caretaker government, now assigned to the task of preparing a re-script of country’s outworn laws, rules and regulations, also stressed the need for strengthening the local government for development of the rural areas he billed backbone of the country.
"We are in some sort of a danger with our governing system. When we talk about the global climate change, then we say that Bangladesh is too little to address the threat; again when a village needs government support to be developed, the government says the government is too big to handle such small issues. So I called upon all for working to strengthen the local government," he said.


 AL preparing for movement to free Hasina
Staff Correspondent

With a view to gearing up the organizational activities and ensuring immediate release of detained party president Sheikh Hasina, Awami League is taking preparation for a mass movement.
Acting AL General Secretary Syed Ashraful Islam hinted this at a press conference after the meeting of AL Secretaries at Dhanmondi AL Office in the capital on Thursday. As part of the party's plan, AL will hold exchange-views-meeting with leaders of six divisions and all districts after holding the AL Working Committee meeting on March 29. AL high command would seek opinions on the prevailing political situation.
The three-hour meeting of AL Secretaries reiterated their demands to release their detained party chief and former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina and send her to the United States for the better treatment within the shortest possible time as per the recommendations of the doctors.
Referring to the letter earlier submitted to the Chief Adviser's Office - requesting to take necessary steps for sending Hasina abroad, Syed Ashraful said, "It would not be a wise decision of the Caretaker Government to 0delay with regards to Hasina's better treatment. Such procrastination of sending her abroad may damage the hearing of the AL chief forever."
"The authorities concerned must consider our appeal realising the sentiment of partymen and people of Bangladesh as they will not tolerate it," he observed adding "In our country, there is no proper treatment of ears were which badly damaged following the grisly grenade attack on 21 August in 2004."
Demanding early parliamentary election, the AL General Secretary said, "Don't try to give lame excuse and waste times, take preparation only for the next Parliamentary Election which is the main task of this interim government."
About the closure of different Trade Unions across the country, the AL meeting also urged the government to resume the activities of Trade Union terming it the violation of the Human Rights and rules of the International Labor Organization (ILO).
The meeting also expressed grave concern over the price spiral of the essentials, including rice and edible oil, and called upon the government to arrest the price spiral as an emergency basis.
"The people are passing miserable days. They are very much fed up as this government absolutely failed to control the price hike of necessary commodities," he opined cautioning the authorities concerned, "Otherwise the overall situation of the country would deteriorate further." Asked about a possible movement, Syed Ashraf said, "We always evaluate the opinions of the party leaders and activists from all levels. They want movement for freeing Sheikh Hasina. The upcoming ALWC meeting will decide the agenda of the next meetings with roots-level leaders. After taking overall summary from their discussion, we will take decision. "The treatment and the release of the party chief Sheikh Hasina will dominate the next emergency ALWC meeting on March 29," he added.
Replying to a query, the Ashraful said, "AL's stand is clear that we will never attend any programme of the government if it (Govt.) invites the war criminals including the Jamaat-e-Islami. As the war criminals are invited, we will not take part in the function at the Bangabhaban on the occasion of the 'Independence Day' on March 26."


 Hannan Shah continues with reunification agenda
Taib Ahmed

Despite the opposition of the party Secretary General as well as of the party rank and file, BNP Chairperson’s adviser (Brig) ASM Hannan Shah is continuing his efforts to reunite the warring factions of the party.
Although Hannan Shah seemed to have backtracked from his stand on unity following a statement of the party Secretary General, Khandoker Delwar Hossain, from New York, Hannan has not shifted his stand; rather he has expedited his efforts. He meantime held a series of meetings on the sly with the reformist leaders. According to sources close to Hannan Shah, the flamboyant BNP leader will reunite the two factions of the party at any cost. Talking to the correspondent, party insiders said, "His desperation to reunite the party would make Hannan Shah ‘zero’ in the same way he became hero for his outspokenness in favour of Begum Khaleda Zia during the crisis period of the party."
On Wednesday, Hannan Shah called in a reporter of a vernacular daily to his New DOHS residence and apprised him of his unity move and told him that he has finalised the draft which will be signed by Hannan Shah on behalf of the loyalist faction and Maj (retd) Hafiz Uddin Ahmed.
Earlier on Monday night, Hannan Shah held a meeting with Osman Faruk, a reformist leader and on Tuesday night, he held a meeting with acting Chairman and Secretary General of the reformist faction M Saifur Rahman and Maj (retd) Hafizuddin Ahmed in a residence of New DOHS. The discussed the pros and cons of the draft as well as the party reunification process.
Sources said, the meeting also discussed what would be the situation if Khandoker Delwar does not approve their agreement. A source close to Hannan Shah said, the reunification process can be finalized through official declaration at any time before March 26. Another source said, Hannan Shah wants to finalise his unity process once Khandoker Delwar returns home after his treatment in New York.
"Khandoker Delwar Hossain will be compelled to approve my unity efforts," Hannan Shah was quoted to have said by a close associate, as he asked Hannan Shah what if Delwar does not agree.
Sources said, in his meeting with pro-Delwar leader Rizvi Ahmed on Monday, there was an exchange of hard talks between the two leaders. When Rizvi told him as to why he is going ahead with the unity agenda as Delwar Hossain knows nothing, Hannan replied, "Begum Zia conveyed her message of unity to me, how could the party Secretary General know and moreover, it is not important that everything should be known by the Secretary General.



 

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Govt forms Market Monitoring Cell
Staff Correspondent

Commerce Ministry on Thursday formed a market monitoring cell to oversee the prices of essential commodities specially rice, lentil and edible oil in the local and global markets in a bid to reduce people's sufferings from the skyrocketing price hike and to foil the whole-seller's target for making huge profit.
Commerce Adviser Hossain Zillur Rahman will act as Chairman of market monitoring cell while NBR Chairman, Commerce Secretary, Bangladesh Bank Deputy Governor, TCB Chairman and BDR Director General as members. The decision was taken at a meeting held at the Commerce Ministry yesterday. Former Finance Adviser and renowned economist Wahiduddin Mahmud was invited to the meeting.
After the meeting Commerce Adviser said the Market Monitoring Cell will inform the people about the prices of rice, lentil and edible oil regularly through print and electronic media including state-owned BTV and radio.
"The Cell will inform the people about the prices of rice, lentil and edible oil in the local market, neighbouring countries market and international market. So people can easily understand the present prices of essentials. On the other hand, Cell has also taken an initiative to prevent the whole-sellers from making more profit which is fueling the hike of prices of essentials," Zillur said.
He said the meeting discussed various issues relating to prices of essential commodities. "We have discussed about the quantity of local production, import and deficit. With a view to encouraging import of edible oil, duty on edible oil has been withdrawn," he added.
Talking to the journalists Wahiduddin Mahmud said the meeting decided to put moral pressure on the businessmen. "As the rationing system has been abolished, we have suggested the government to go to the vulnerable group and sell rice, lentil and edible at cheaper rate to them," he said.


  Power crisis takes serious turn
Staff Correspondent

Power situation has taken a serious turn as the country has been experiencing about 1500 MW of electricity shortfall due to inadequate generation by the Power Development Board (PDB).
"The PDB has the capacity to generate 3900 MW to 4000 MW electricity against the demand for 5550 MW during the summer. On Tuesday, PDB generated 3901 MW against the demand for 4300 MW," an official of PDB told The Bangladesh Today.
Officials of Rural Electrification Board (REB), Dhaka Electric Supply Authority (DESA) and Dhaka Electric Supply Company (Desco) and the PDB said the actual demand is 5,500 mw. As a result the country is experiencing about 1500 mw shortages daily. Almost all the areas in the city, except some VVIP and important areas, had to face power outage for hours together in different spells today.
In the capital, frequent power disruption and load shedding is seriously affecting the city dwellers, educational institutions and business establishments as the supply of electricity fell drastically
The worst power situation, caused by frequent power outage and disruption crippling the country is unlikely to improve in the near future as many units of different power plants across the country remain out of order.
"The terrible power situation will deteriorate day by day as most of the power plants are old. Many power units of different power plants in the country with a generation capacity of 1500mw of electricity remain out of order," a source in the Power Development Board said.
Meanwhile, thousands of small and medium scale industries at different places including the old part of the city are facing an uphill task to maintain required output level due to random power failure, sources said. Due to power shortage, the factories may not be able to meet the production target, likely to cause them losses in millions of taka, they added.
Not only the business activities of these areas are paralysed, but also the normal activities of thousands of people are being disrupted due to frequent power outage. Sufferings of the people, especially children and the aged, have mounted due to rise in temperature and frequent loadshedding. Meanwhile, people living at many places of country including six metropolitan cities have been expressing utter disappointment over the worsening power situation.


BD Workers in Malaysia
We should think about their welfare: Dr Iftekhar

Staff Correspondent

Foreign adviser Iftekhar Ahmed Chowdhury on Thursday said Bangladeshi people working in different companies in Malaysia can switch over to other companies if they prefer.
"When I visited Malaysia earlier I talked to the Malaysian Government on the issue. Malaysian government assured me that Bangladeshi people, who are working in different companies, will be able to work in another company." The foreign advisor said this while inaugurating a three-day long fair 'Showcase Malaysia- 2008' started at a city hotel on Thursday.
He said the Bangladeshi labours have been working in Malaysia despite various problems and difficulties and sending a huge amount of money back to the country.
"About eight lakh Bangladeshi people went to Malaysia last year and sent seven billion US dollar remittance. We should think about their welfare. During my visit I made an earnest request to the Malaysian government so that it takes action accordingly to solve the problems the Bangladeshi workers are facing in Malaysia.
Success for economic cooperation between two countries depends on degree of compatibility of their economics. Trade and commerce occupy an important position in Bangladesh-Malaysia bilateral relations. There is ample scope for further advancement of this relation to benefit both the countries. Bangladesh offers an excellent investment environment. The investors from Malaysia can make best use of this offer.


Crime

Robbery on Dhaka-Aricha highway, two held
A Correspondent, Manikganj
Cash, mobile sets and valuables worth Tk three lakh were looted by robbers from a Paturia-bound passenger bus on Dhaka-Aricha at Kalia under Dhamrai thana in Dhaka Highway on Wednesday. Later two robbers were arrested.
The arrested robbers are Shahadat Hossain, 21, of Islampur and Firoz, 20, of Palli village of Dhamrai in Dhaka.
According to the police sources, a gang of robbers numbering nine boarded on the bus of Jatrisheba from Gabtoli of Dhaka from Nabinagar in guise of passengers.
At the time of robbery the out post policemen came to the spot and by the help of passengers Shahadat was caught from the spot. Later the Ashulia thana poice arrested Firoz in thuis connection.

One held with
yaba in city

Staff Correspondent
At least seven alleged drug traders including a woman were arrested and huge amount of yaba tablets and ganja were recovered from their possession from different parts of the capital on Wednesday night.
Acting on a tip-off, a patrol team of DB police led by senior assistant police commissioner, SM Mehedi launched a day-long drive at city's Bijoy Nagar, Uttara, Gabtoli and Aminbazar areas and arrested Razon, 26, Karim, 23, Kamal, 38, Locman Hakim, 47, Rony 29. The law enforcers recovered around 2100 of yaba, around Tk three lakh and 31 thousand with seven mobile phone sets. The arrestees are the members of an organized drug trading gang, according to DB sources.
Meanwhile, on the basis of secret information, a team of police led by sub-inspector Bachu Mia raided a house at about 12 noon at Khilkhet and arrested Fuleshori Bagum, 32, an alleged narcotic items trader. Around 5kg ganja worth about Tk 60 thousand were recovered from her possession.
Cases were lodged under narcotic Act.

Youth slaughtered in Jessore

UNB, Jessore
A youth was slaughtered by some unknown assailants at Bharatpur in Monirampur upazila Tuesday.
Sources said Masood Rana, 26, son of Mohiuddin of Per Khajura village of the upazila, went missing since a youth called him out of his house on Sunday night.
Being informed by local people, police recovered the body from a garden at Bharatpur village on Tuesday and sent it to hospital morgue for autopsy.
Motive behind the killing could not be known immediately. A case was filed.

2 poachers detained by forest dept

BSS, Bagerhat
Members of forest department in Sundarbans detained two poachers from the Posur river when they were returning home after hunting deer on Wednesday.
The forest department personnel recovered 22 kilograms venison after searching the boat of the poacher.
The arrested men were identified as Kamalash, 23, and Rafiqul Islam, 28. The poachers were sent to Bagerhat Judical Magistrate's Court.
A case was filed under Wildlife Act in this connection.

Prisoners on hunger strike protesting poor food

UNB, Meherpur
Inmates of the district jail have gone on hunger strike since Thursday morning protesting poor and inadequate food.
Jail Super Masudul Kabir admitted the fact. He said detained Meherpur pourasava chairman Mutassim Billah was obstructed by a jailer boiling egg inside the cell, which is a violation of the jail code. That angered him and declined to take food. Other jail inmates joined him.
More than 200 people are in the age-old 39-capacity jail.

Murder case against OC, 4 cops, 3 others

UNB, Khulna
A case was filed against seven people, including officer-in-charge of Batiaghata Thana and four other policemen, on Wednesday for killing a man.
Abul Hasan filed the case with the Chief Judicial Magistrate Court against OC of Batiaghata thana Delwar Hossain and Sub Inspectors Abdul Malek, Saban Ali and Akkas Ali, ASI M Sayed, police source Ansar Gazi and Moslem Gazi for killing his brother Abul Hossain in jail.
In his complaint, Abul Hasan alleged that his brother Abul Hossain was arrested from Sallamari area in the city for possessing drug on March 7 this year and brought to Batiaghata thana.
He alleged that a Sub Inspector as per the instruction of OC Delwar demanded Tk 1 lakh from his family over the mobile phone for releasing Abul Hossain.
He said Abul Hossain was found dead in the thana hajat on the following day and he was told that his brother committed suicide.
A three-member committee was formed to investigate the matter and the committee was asked to submit its report within seven days. But he alleged that no report was submitted although 10 days have passed.

Butcher shot dead, father wounded

UNB, Jhenidah
A butcher was shot dead and his octogenarian father wounded by bullet in a gun attack at Kumrabaria in Sadar upazila on Wednesday night.
Police quoting local people said assailants fired three shots on Jamal Hossain, 40, and his father Idris Ali, 80, through the window of the house at about 10:30pm, leaving them fatally wounded.
They were rushed to the Sadar Hospital where Jamal died shortly after admission. Condition of Idris was stated critical.
Police suspected the gun attack was made in a sequel to "previous enmity".
A case was filed with the Sadar police station.

Theft at Teletalk office

UNB, Bogra
Muggers took away scratch-cards worth Tk 25 lakh and Tk 50,000 in cash from the divisional office of mobile phone Company Teletalk in the town.
Sources said the officials left the office locking its door on Tuesday evening and found the grill of a window broken on the following morning.
Later, they found scratch cards of different values worth Tk 25 lakh and Tk 50,000 in cash missing from the office.
On information, police rushed to the spot and also detained its two guards for interrogation.

Pirate busted

BSS, Bagerhat
A notorious pirate leader of Bay of Bengal was arrested by police in a pre-dawn swoop on Wednesday from the Kalapara area of Pautakhali.
The leader was identified as Abul Hossain, 35. He is the leader of Abul Bahani. Police super of Bagerhat AKM Shaheedur Rahman told BSS that Hossain was arrested in a robbery case in a fishing trawler at Bay of Bengal on February 28.
A gang of pirates, led by Abul Hossain, attacked that trawler named AF Sagar-1 where 7 fishermen out of 9 still missing and looted fishes, nets and other goods, sp said.
He said a good number of cases are pending in different thans of the district against Abul Hossain. Abul has been attacking trawlers and fishing boats in the Bay of Bengal since long after formation of the bahini.

Headmaster held for embezzling relief

UNB, Bagerhat
Police arrested headmaster of a government primary school from Pikepara village in sadar upazila Wednesday for embezzling relief goods.
Sources said Asit Kumar Das, headmaster of Sunagar Government Primary School, took 25 packets of powder milk of relief to his house instead of distributing those among the students of his school.
Local people recovered the milk from the kitchen of his house and handed him over to police.
A case was filed.

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Editorial

Fears of Social and Political Unrests

A Daily Star report on 19 March 2008 cited various WFP officials as apprehending social and political unrests if food prices continue to rise much beyond the buying capacities of people. One doesn't have to wait for this cautionary message from WFP officials to understand that Bangladesh and its people are perhaps passing through their most critical times since Independence. Never in our history of 37 years of state-hood have we faced such apparently insurmountable problems of such massive and all-encompassing scope - our politics are in disarray, our economics are in worse disarray and our society is uncertain, divisive and unstable. True it is that for the last few years we have been living with uncertainties of all sorts, uncertainties being a part of human conditions, but never to a magnitude and to an extent which threatens to tear apart the very fabric of our nation-statehood.
This slide into chaos started towards the end of the last BNP-Jamaat alliance government, when that government decided to pre-engineer the forthcoming elections to bring them back to power for a consecutive second term. With the AL and the BNP intransigent and unwilling to compromise the stage was set for either an outright martial-law or an emergency strongly backed by the Army. Largely manipulated by foreign powers such as India, the USA and UK, the Emergency was ill-planned and ill-conceived from the very beginning. The Emergency Government was composed of individuals who had little, if any, discernment of what Bangladesh was all about and what the ground realities are. The expectations of the populace were high. A sea-change in politics, in governance and in the economy was expected but what the people got was a change of personnel and modus operandi in such areas as the EC, the Anti-Corruption Commission and the lower judiciary (much touted as the independence of the judiciary); areas which do not really affect the lives or living of the "common man". As for the rest, it was business as usual. Changes in the core state institutions, such as in the system of justice and judiciary, in the police and the system of law-enforcement, in the bureaucracy and the system of public administration and in the military were never even in the agenda; age old core state institutions which were the cause of and provided the roots of miss-governance continued functioning as they always did, with inefficiency and with ineptitude.
When natural disasters and a global economy in recession badly hit our own fragile economy, it created inflation, large-scale unemployment, food shortages and a galloping increase in prices of essential commodities. With political processes and institutions in disorder, a divisive society in fearful uncertainty, a populace getting increasingly disillusioned and angry, the Emergency Government could or can do little to tackle the situation; neither does it have the leadership capabilities to see through a Nation in deep predicament. Under the circumstances, social and political unrests, strife or even conflicts are a foregone conclusion. We wanted the Emergency Government to save us from the chaos of political and social conflicts, what it has done is to aggravate and accelerate the process of disintegration of our entire social, political and economic systems; a complete breakdown now remains in the offing.


BD Workers Abroad

Bangladeshi workers are facing a very tough time in foreign countries due to different reasons including adverse labour policies of the manpower importing countries as well as the failure of the Bangladesh missions concerned to handle the issue properly. It has been alleged that Bangladeshi workers are languishing in different countries as Bangladesh government and its missions abroad failed to handle the situation effectively. According to press reports, hundreds of Bangladeshi workers have been arrested in different countries including Saudi Arabia and Malaysia while many others are being sent back home forcibly. The situation turned for the worse specially in Saudi Arabia as Rohynga Muslims of Myanmar, who managed to go there with Bangladeshi passports, are committing rape, murder and other crimes and the Bangladeshi workers too are forced to bear the responsibilities of these .
A TBT report on Thursday quoted a diplomatic source as saying that the Saudi Government still sticks to its decision to reduce the number of Bangladeshi workers and is even reluctant to hold any discussion on the issue with Bangladesh. It may be mentioned here, as many as 54 lakh Bangladeshis are now working in more than 100 foreign countries, and of them 17 lakhs are in Saudi Arabia. Fresh bloods continue to be infused in ailing Bangladesh economy as the expatriate Bangladeshi workers are sending huge amount of foreign exchanges regularly. But this process is now threatened with a serious debacle as a large number of them are facing serious difficulties at their work places and are being detained or repatriated.
It may be mentioned that Bangladeshi workers are being recruited through 769 government approved agencies. But some recruiting agencies are allegedly cheating the workers by sending them abroad without valid documents and confirmed jobs. The authorities have so far utterly failed to take these dishonest manpower recruiting agencies to task.
Worse still, the labour wings of the Bangladesh missions abroad have been failing miserably to look after the welfare of the Bangladeshi workers despite issuance of repeated directives by the ministry of foreign affairs to do so. Those responsible for promoting employment of Bangladeshis in foreign countries and protect their interests there are apparently unable or unwilling to accomplish their tasks as many of them are allegedly involved in activities of personal interests. The government should look into this allegation and take stern action against those found guilty. Besides, the government should try to persuade the foreign governments concerned to revise their labour policies and consider the cases of Bangladeshi workers sympathetically and leniently.

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Analysis

Road Back from Perdition

The brutality inflicted on our own countrymen 37 years ago is nothing to be proud of or to be shoved under the carpet, this is a lasting shame we must live with.

Ikram Sehgal

If anyone thinks Pakistanis know more about the political complexities of their present predicament, think again. Every Bangladeshi I met during a recent visit to Dhaka had some advice on how to solve our problems. More importantly, they were passionately sincere in hoping things would work out for Pakistan. Given the residual anger about 1971 atrocities (and recent calls for bringing of war criminals to justice), the turnaround of emotions is quite something!
The brutality inflicted on our own countrymen 37 years ago is nothing to be proud of or to be shoved under the carpet, this is a lasting shame we must live with. Those who perpetrated those atrocities deserve perdition. However Biharis (and others hailing from former West Pakistan) also need atonement, they were also on the receiving end in 1971, particularly between 2 Mar and 25 Mar, and after Dec 16, albeit on a much smaller scale. Pakistan has an obligation of conscience to repatriate the forgotten "stranded Pakistanis" back to Pakistan, they belong here. While neither forgiving nor forgetting the horrendous crimes of 1971, why re-open old wounds by targeting a few dregs of humanity? Let's harness the inherent goodwill of today and use that as the bedrock of the present and future relationship between the two countries.
Pakistan and Bangladesh may not be similar, they have remarkably similar problems. On Oct 12, 1999, the then PM (Mian Nawaz Sharif) tried to oust the COAS and was himself deposed in a counter-coup by the army remaining loyal to its Chief, Gen Pervez Musharraf took over as Chief Executive rather than imposing Martial Law. Musharraf took over as Chief Executive rather than imposing Martial Law. Inheriting a terrible economic situation alongwith numerous social and political woes, Pervez Musharraf was heartily applauded on assuming power. The much criticized u-turn after 9/11 gave a great boost to our economic fortunes. Musharraf initiated significant reforms, including giving women a reserved position in governance, freeing the electronic media, setting in motion (with the help of 9/11) several years of economic boom, etc. It is the done thing for persons occupying seats of power to want to cling on to power, how many Nelson Mandelas in this world? The rigging and manipulation of elections 2002 put paid to all Pervez Musharraf's reformist agenda, his attempt at longevity came a cropper. The compromising of accountability, failure in dealing strongly with Jehadi elements, the economics of "trickle-down" refusing to trickle down to the masses, the stifling of democratic forces in his ambitions to retain absolute power, etc, reversed the many gains of nearly a decade.
The ultimate catalyst for change was of his own doing, albeit on very bad advice from his three hand-picked Intelligence Chiefs, Nadeem Ijaz, DGMI, Ijaz Shah, DG IB and Nusrat Naeem DDG ISI (incharge of internal security). The attempt to remove Chief Justice Iftikhar Chaudhry on Mar 9, 2007 was an unmitigated disaster. Before they run the three blind mice need to answer for their excesses, they should also answer to Musharraf for comprehensively destroying what could have been a tremendous legacy. There is a moral here, merit and integrity must always supercede blind loyalty. The lawyers got hold off his heels and have not let go. Musharraf the survivor still has a few rabbits left in his magic hat, will Musharraf the patriot delay the inevitable? More appropriately, at what cost to himself and to the nation?
As Defence Attaché of Bangladesh posted in Islamabad in Oct 1999, (then) Brig Gen (now Gen) Moeen Ahmad must have learnt a thing or two from Musharraf's assuming of absolute power. Khaleda Zia blatantly attempted to rig the elections in late 2007, friend and foe alike exhorted Moeen, by then CAS Bangladesh Army, to take over, either by imposing outright martial law or do a Pervez Musharraf, i.e. become Chief Executive of the government. To his undying credit, Moeen only partially followed the Musharraf formula, refusing to become Head of State or of Government. The Presidency was activated to declare an emergency and install a genuinely neutral Caretaker Cabinet. Thus was "the Bangladeshi model" created, a refined behind-the-scenes military rule with actual civilian governance instead of a civilian façade, the initial results were remarkably good. Moeen did not post uniformed officers wholesale a la Musharraf into the civilian bureaucracy to fix everything including the kitchen sink. However power is difficult to resist, army officers did manage to creep into governance over time. An Anti-Corruption Commission a la Pakistan's National Accountability Bureau (NAB) went after the chronically corrupt. Instead of eliminating a hundred or so hard-core habitually corrupt from the body politic, Moeen's men seem to have taken on too much by going after every corrupt person, big or small, across the broad spectrum. The bull-in-a-China-shop interference by the uniformed lot also targeted importers of foodgrain and edible oils; the cycle of vital imports dried up. Compounded by the vagaries of mother nature, scarcities have resulted in skyrocketing prices for an already impoverished people.
The generally left-of-center Bangladeshi intelligentsia or the teeming masses certainly do not want a return of the old corrupt set-up. The Catch-22 is that if general elections are delayed, frustration and bitterness at food shortages will boil over. We may have a replay of the developing Pakistan situation, politically and economically, Bangladesh traversing in less than two years what Pakistan has done in nine. Moeen must emulate his Pakistani counterpart, Gen Kayani, belatedly but effectively. Recall all Army officers from civilian jobs and stop intelligence officers from interfering with politics and politicians, only exceptions being what concerns the security of the State. His anti-corruption drive has a few months narrow "window of opportunity" left, focus must be on prosecuting the corrupt few whose elimination from the system is vital. The vacuum will allow genuine leadership of political parties to naturally emerge without manipulation. No army in history has ever successfully created a political party that has lasted for any length of time. Leave politics alone and plan a quick transition to genuine democracy after free and fair elections.
If Moeen really wants change for his nation, and there is no reason to believe otherwise, then the electoral system must be made truly democratic. The "first-past-the-post" system is not democratic, it is a farce. If any candidate does not get more than 50% of the voters cast, a "second run-off" election between first two candidates getting the most votes is a must to have a clear winner. Other than hard-core supporters, disparate forces in every constituency will band together to vote out scoundrels that have filtered thorough the "corruption screen", fostering unity across the broad spectrum of the body politic. The Bangladesh Election Commission, by the way quite independent and thus credible, must ensure that the majority will is clearly and unambiguously expressed.
Ashfaq Pervez Kayani has put the Pakistan Army on the road back from perdition. As someone who has always believed Moeen Ahmad is marked by destiny, he must do the same for Bangladesh.

(Ikram Sehgal is an internationally renowned columnist and the Editor of the Pakistan Defense Journal)


  Kosovo's First Month

While Serbia has a strategy to divide Kosovo, the international community does not have a clearly defined and coordinated response.

A month has passed since Kosovo declared independence on 17 February 2008. Much has gone well, but there is a real risk, as made most evident with the violence on 17 March around the courthouse in north Mitrovica that partition will harden at the Ibar River in the north and Kosovo will become another frozen conflict. To seek to prevent this, more countries must recognize and embrace the new state, the international missions (European Union and NATO) must be more proactive and coordinate their operations and, most importantly, it must be demonstrated to Serbia, supported by Russia, that it will not be permitted to break up the new state.
Kosovo's government has made positive gestures to the Serb minority and committed to protect minority rights, including through decentralization of local government and preservation of cultural and religious heritage. Countries that have recognized Kosovo should now follow up with high-level visits, investments, trade agreements and assistance packages that will demonstrate independence is an irreversible reality and give the new state the confidence and wherewithal it needs to act responsibly.
Concerns that many had about the first month of independence - mass exodus from the enclaves, economic/energy boycotts or even military action by Serbia - have proven unfounded. Nor has there been widespread destabilizing violence. But the global community's so-far tepid embrace of the new republic, Belgrade's efforts to expand its hold over Serb areas so as to advance a partition strategy and the failure of international bodies and Pristina to coordinate a counter-strategy suggest longer-term dangers remain very real. These include the perpetuation of a dispute that until it is accepted as settled by all parties leaves the post-Yugoslav peace project in much of the Western Balkans fragile; one of the regions most important states - Serbia - seriously at odds with neighbors and the West; Russia with a standing temptation to make mischief; the UN's conflict resolution prestige wounded; and the European Union's ability to punch at the political heavyweight level it strives for severely tested.
Kosovo's independence ceremonies and celebrations were dignified and well organized. The new government reached out rhetorically to the Serbs and adopted state symbols, including a new flag, which showed sensitivity to the concerns of the international community. It pledged to implement the plan for conditional independence devised by the UN Secretary-General's special representative, Martti Ahtisaari, and invited the International Civilian Representative (ICR), the EU rule of law mission (EULEX) and NATO (KFOR) to assume major responsibilities for implementing that plan. Kosovo's parliament has begun passing the Ahtisaari laws and is soon to finalize the new constitution.
The EU acted with remarkable unity, even in the face of some member states' hesitancy to recognize Kosovo. On 18 February it took common note of the independence declaration and committed to play a leading role in helping the young state. Earlier it had authorized EULEX as its largest mission ever, as well as an EU special representative, and deployment has begun. EU High Representative Javier Solana, Swedish Foreign Minister Carl Bildt and NATO Secretary General Jaap de Hoop Scheffer were the only senior officials to visit Kosovo in the first month of independence. On 28 February in Vienna, several EU member states and the U.S. took the lead to establish an International Steering Group to supervise Kosovo independence.
The reaction in Serbia was marked with street violence and government disunity. The rejectionist and racist anti-Albanian tone contrasted poorly with the inclusive and sober messages coming from Pristina and demonstrated again both how big a blow the loss of Kosovo is and the failure to break definitively with Milosevic-era attitudes. Commendably, Belgrade did not follow through on threats to cut electricity and impose an embargo, kept its army back and restrained extremists from escalating violence in Kosovo.
The Serbian government - a coalition primarily between President Tadic's DS party and Prime Minister Kostunica's DSS party - fell on 10 March, largely over differences on how to respond to EU states' recognition of Kosovo and the deployment of EU missions. But Tadic and the DS have in effect acquiesced to Kostunica's domination of Serbia's Kosovo policy, including the refusal to cooperate with the new EU missions. Little change can be expected in this regard from the 11 May parliamentary elections.
Instead, Belgrade is likely to perpetuate a stand-off in Kosovo Serb areas. It facilitated violence in Kosovo on 19, 21 and 25 February, when Serbs attacked customs and border posts in the north (though Serbian riot police prevented a further attack by army reservists on 9 March). The consequences of its provocations were evident in the violent aftermath of the effort by UNMIK and KFOR to clear the regional court in north Mitrovica on 17 March of former employees who had occupied the building demanding that they be returned to their jobs. These consequences included scores of injuries to protestors and internationals alike.
Serbia is implementing a sophisticated policy to undermine Kosovo statehood by strengthening parallel institutions in Kosovo Serb areas, intimidating or buying off any inclined to cooperate with Pristina. Nationalist politicians in Belgrade hope at a minimum to secure partition into Albanian and Serbian entities, or to incite Kosovo Albanians to react violently and so do great damage to the international standing of their state-building project. The situation is made more complicated by Russia's continued firm support of Serbia, efforts to discourage recognitions and resistance to UNMIK downsizing.
While Serbia has a strategy to divide Kosovo, the international community does not have a clearly defined and coordinated response. The 17 March UNMIK/KFOR operation appears to have been more an ad hoc reaction to provocation than part of a carefully choreographed plan. Legitimate questions have arisen as to whether its timing, tactics and potential consequences were fully considered in advance.
More broadly the EU and the UN are late in agreeing to a handover process and have stopped talking about transition. The UN is suggesting that it may remain beyond the first 120 days, at least in the north where the EU has been forced to pull back by the violence of the Serb response. NATO is concerned that it will be called on to assume more policing duties if Serb radicals backed by Belgrade continue to try to undermine UN and Kosovo Police Service (KPS) authority, especially along the border and in north Mitrovica. International political resolve is needed now to tell Serbia bluntly that it must accept Kosovo independence and move on.
Specifically in the next weeks:
l The EU and U.S. should stimulate more bilateral recognitions of Kosovo, lobby for its admission into international bodies, send high-level political visitors to Pristina and provide immediate financial assistance and capacity-building support to the new government.
l UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon should state clearly and without delay that he welcomes cooperation with the EU in Kosovo and that the UN will downsize to adjust to developments and changes on the ground.
l The EU, UN and NATO should agree on a common, comprehensive strategy for the Serb north of Kosovo. Serbia's efforts since independence to extend its state institutions there should not be accepted. The UN should seek to effectively control the border, police stations, courts and jails; cooperate with the EU and NATO in reshaping its northern presence to aid transition; and gradually introduce EULEX, first at border and customs posts, later at police stations and courts.
l The Kosovo government and its international partners should mount a sustained media and information campaign to communicate to Kosovo Serbs the benefits of the Ahtisaari plan, focusing on decentralization and the creation of new Serb-majority municipalities.

(The above is a brief by the International Crisis Group, released 18 March 2008. Source: www.crisisgroup.org)


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Viewpoints

Practicing Community Policing: The Bangladeshi Perspective

The Bangladesh police have been experimenting with the philosophy of community policing for ages. But no effective strategies have yet been followed.

Razzak Raza


Since the inception of London Metropolitan Police in 1829 by Sir Robert Peel, the history of policing experienced several new approaches. But, perhaps, "the most important development and the most creative approach is the community policing". Though the concept of community policing began taking roots in 1970's, but it drew global attention in 1990's when the U,S. Department of Justice (DOJ), established the office of the Community Oriented Policing Services (COPS) in 1994 to render federal assistance for community policing approaches to the states and regional police departments .
Community policing programs take many different forms. Some emphasizes disorder and quality-of-life issues, while other focus on serious crime. Some primarily address drug-related crime. So, it is fairly difficult to define the community policing in a single sentence. The Community Oriented Policing Services defines community policing as "a policing philosophy that promotes and supports organizational strategies to address the causes and reduce the fear of crime and social disorder through problem solving tactics and police community partnership."
In a community policing approach the police need to work closely with the public as one of the partners of the community. This philosophy opposes the "inward-looking bureaucracy" that is traditionally common across the globe. The basic idea behind the community policing is that it tries to establish a rapport of trust and a sort of reliance between the police and the public.
It is true that Sir Robert Peel founded the base-stone of modern policing. His famous nine points are the basic guidelines for every police department. His 7th point states, "police, at all time, should maintain a relationship with the public that gives the reality to the historic tradition that the police are the public and the public are the police; the police being only members of the public who are paid to give full-time attention to duties which are incumbent on every citizen in the interests of community welfare and existence."
Though community partnership is an essential characteristic of Robert Peel's nine points, he did not clarify that developing the quality of citizen's lives would be his central theme. His standard of evaluating police performance was "absence of crime and disorder". The 1st point, so, describes, "The basic mission for which the police exist is prevent crime and disorder".
However, the debate of determining the master mind of community policing philosophy would be endless. But it is true that the base of American approach of community policing lies on Tom Porter's philosophy. In 1972 the Portland Police Department, under the leadership of Tom Porter started the journey of community policing. This idea was adopted by the other police departments of the United States of America. And in 1990's this got the USA federal guardianship. In 1994, in the USA, 'the Violent Crime Control and Law Enforcement Act' was passed both in the House and in the senate, authorizing 8.8 billion dollars expenditure over six years. The office of COPS was created to distribute and monitor the funds. The COPS project has extended beyond its stipulated time. It disbursed fund to the states and regional police departments who adapted the philosophy of community policing. Under the COPS project thousands of new police officers were recruited, training centers were setup to impart necessary training to the existing and the newly recruit ed police officers who would work as community police officers. The then president Bill Clinton during his campaign for the second term election, promised his voters to allocate additional funds for COPS and a new recruitment of 100,000 new police officers for community policing activities.
The philosophy and practice of community policing of the USA has diffused worldwide. The semi-military top-down and inward looking police bureaucracy has started to decentralize the decision making authority to root level officers and the police are changing their garments of law enforcers putting on the jacket of problem solvers.
The Bangladesh police have been experimenting with the philosophy of community policing for ages. But no effective strategies have yet been followed. The Police Reform Program (PRP) has been working for massive reform in the police system of Bangladesh. However, its focus is in the structural and attitudinal change of the countries colonial police set up. The idea of community policing might be addressed later on. But some of the senior police officers are very much enthusiastic on community policing activities.
Earlier, in Bangladesh, community policing was viewed as an act of organizing community members of the crime affected locality to perform night patrol along with police. Owner groups of the huts, bazaars and business institutions are encouraged to form patrol committee to perform night patrol on shifts. Some dacoity prone rural areas also came under the night patrol style community policing.
This style of community policing are practiced under the patronization and directives of the Officers-in-Charge of the local police stations. The performance of an Officer-in-Charge of a police station is evaluated mainly upon his effective control over crime against property. A dacoity is considered more grievous an offence than the murder of few people due to personal or gang enmity. So, the Officer-in-Charge of a police station tries heart and soul to deter dacoity. To make his jurisdiction free of dacoity, he would force the community members of the dacoity-infested area on the street for patrol. But the other forms of crimes remain un-addressed. Patrolling in the night cannot remove the causes of crimes.
In the traditional strategy of crime control, police never address the roots of criminal activities. And, at the same time it is also true that the police have no mechanism and authority to eliminate the causes of crimes. As community policing is a new philosophy, it demands a positive shift from the traditional policing attitudes. So, the age-old mindset of the police-persons must be changed. But this is perhaps the most difficult task for the organization to change them. Human beings are traditionally conservative and when they are organized once, it is tough to reorganize. The police department is more conservative than any other organization. It was believed once that the change of police is impossible. Community policing categorically emphasizes the sea change in the policing philosophy. It emphasizes the change in the organizational, tactical and external elements.
In the organization, community policing loose the string of command and control decentralizing the decision making process. The rank and file officers will be given enough leverage to single out community problems, analysis them and find out a solution for it community policing encourages the use of non-law enforcement resources within a law enforcement agency. Volunteerism involves active citizen participation with their law enforcement agency.
Tactically community policing take a proactive and preventive action and address the root causes of crimes and disorders. Police officers, community members and other public and private organizations work together to solve the problems in a community. As community members are viewed as partners by the police, both of them have to shoulder equal responsibilities in problem solving. The prerequisite of implementing community policing is the change in the attitudes of the both police and the public. Therefore training on community policing is needed for the police officers as well as the community members.
In the USA under the COPS project massive training are imparted to the police officers on community policing. There are several Regional Community Policing Training Institutes where police officers, as well as, the community members are being trained. COPS has developed Problem Oriented Guides for Police Series by a group of highly respected researchers. These COPS publications provide a wealth of information for detectives and patrol officers on current practices and innovations to deal with old and new problems.
In Bangladesh, though community policing has become a buzz expression now a days, the real phase of community policing is yet to be started. The existing police establishment never encourages the participation of the community in police works. Bangladesh police, with their present law, rules and regulations is an immensely bureaucratic organization. So, inserting decentralized philosophy of community policing is nearly impossible. To make room for community participation, Bangladesh Police must change their existing police act. Without changing the existing centralized police structure, community policing can never be practiced.
The rank and file officers of Bangladesh police are trained in an academy where not an iota of community policing is taught. The training manual of Bangladesh Police Academy remains unaltered since 1912; and in 1912 the idea of community policing was not formed even in the USA. So, the philosophy of community policing is still a vague expressing to most of the Bangladeshi police officers. Many officers of Bangladesh police use the word without understanding the real theme. Police officers of subordinate ranks getting involved into community policing web only because, the superior officers want them to do it. But without the whole hearted devotion, community policing will be only the individual boss's idea that will die as soon as the boss departs.
It must be understood that the program of community policing is not a program of only the police department. It is rather, a program of the whole community. So, the community mobilization is one of the major tasks for the community policing advocates. But the fact is that at present the Bangladeshi approach of community policing is exclusively a police activity. Neither the Government nor the non government forces except the police are engaged in community policing.
Special fund is needed to materialize the community policing philosophy. The fund must come from the development budget. Additional police officers as well as non-police experts must be appointed. Bangladesh Police have an acute shortage of human resources. They can hardly perform their routine works with these resources. The community policing program demands extra manpower. So, fresh recruitment of officers, for the implementation community policing program, is needed. However, canceling LPR of the able bodied experienced police persons, the number of officers could be augmented. Besides this retired police officers of commendable quality could be appointed on contract basis for this purpose.

(The author is a freelance columnist specializing in law-enforcement issues. E-mail: razzak_raza@yahoo.com)


Third oil shock

We are now living in one of history's defining moments, the third oil shock when North Sea Brent and West Texas crude trade at $110.

Matein Khalid

T
HE two oil shocks of the 1970's had a seismic impact on the world's industrial constellation, financial markets, geopolitical alignments and competition for energy resources.
Stagflation in the US, the worst economic recession since the Great Depression, a monetary policy revaluation under the Volcker Fed, twenty per cent inflation and Treasury bill rates, stock market crashes, international banking failures and the sovereign bankruptcy of Latin America, the collapse of British trade unions and American airlines, the emergence of Saudi Arabia as the power broker of the Arab world, the Reagan-Thatcher free market ideologies can all be traced to the 1979 oil shock when Ayatollah Khomeini overthrew the Shah's regime in Iran. We are now living in one of history's defining moments, the third oil shock when North Sea Brent and West Texas crude trade at $110. The third oil shock will change the world as we know it, create new realities of geopolitical power and influence. Technology, politics, financial markets, climate change, exploration trends in natural gas and coal, banking systems, the war on terror, central bank monetary policies, commodities prices, business processes and strategies, even social norms will not be immune from the third oil shock. That much, at least, is certain.
The end of the Cold War and the collapse of the USSR left the US as the planet's sole superpower, with its Washington consensus the dominant economic paradigm enforced by the IMF and the World Bank after the 1998 debt crises in Russia and the Far East. Yet the first decade of the new millennium, the reign of George W Bush in the White House, has not been kind to Pax Americana. The enlargement of the EU, wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, the rise of Islamic fundamentalism in the Middle East, the resurgence of Russia, the Silicon Valley tech bubble bust, 9/11, the failure to contain Iran or crush Hezbollah, Hamas and Al Qaeda terrorism, colossal current account deficits, the Wall Street credit meltdown and the collapse of the US dollar in the foreign exchange markets all demonstrate the decline of American power in the world. The third oil shock will accelerate this trend. Russia, with its $500 billion hard currency reserves and ownership of one fourth of the world's gas reserves, has stymied Western oil companies' ambitions to own equity gas. The Kremlin has arm twisted Shell to give up control of its Sakhalin project to Gazprom and used its energy resources as an instrument of foreign policy from Kiev to Berlin, Tashkent to Beijing, Tbilisi to Qom.
Pax Americana in the Middle East also faces grave threats in the future. Iran's Ayatollahs, also beneficiaries of $110 crude oil, have forged an anti-American, anti-status quo alliance that embraces, Syria, Hezbollah in Lebanon, Gaza in Palestine and Shia militias in Iran. While US allies like Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Jordan and the GCC states have not abandoned Washington's security umbrella, their economic linkages with China and Russia have become crucial. The US, with its consumption excesses, crippled money centre banks, collapsing dollar, impotent Treasury and current account deficits is hardly a persuasive economic role model for the Arab world. This is a revolutionary U-turn from the early 1990's when America won the Gulf War, the Soviet Union disappeared into the garbage heap of history, the IMF and Wall Street were the world's financiers and the dollar was king in the currency markets.
If Clinton or Obama win the White House in November, $110 crude oil can easily persuade America to embrace the new ideas on climate change and energy, as happened with Japan, Taiwan and South Korea after the economic insecurities of the second oil shocks. Washington will use regulations and the tax code to force consumers, utilities and businesses to embrace fuel efficient protocols, meaning the golden age of the gas guzzler SUV and the light truck is living on borrowed time. Detroit's future may rise in hydrogen cars and diesel trucks. Of course, every oil shock contains the seeds of its own destruction. The US consumer is no less than 20 per cent of the global GDP and the buyer of the last resort for Asia's exports that define the demand curve for oil and gas. As in 1974 and 1982, economic recession in the West could well mean yet another historic collapse in crude oil prices.
Of course, since the US is no longer the world's sole economic superpower, China has emerged from behind the Bamboo Curtain and India has abandoned the License Raj, the world's ability to recycle petrodollar surpluses is that much greater. Yet chronic inflation, fed by soaring prices of gasoline, heating oil, cement, grains and construction equipment, has become the macroeconomic Achilles heel of Russia, the GCC, India, China and the EU. As in the 1970's higher inflation rates increase political risk for incumbent regimes across the emerging markets because the masses are often the victims, not beneficiaries of inflation. This is the ominous message a capricious electorate delivered to General Musharraf in Pakistan, to Abdullah Badawi in Malaysia, to the South Korean socialist coalition in Seoul. If oil, food, cement and fertiliser prices continue to soar, the Tories will oust New Labour from Downing Street, the Congress-Left Front will lose the next Indian general election, riots and demonstrations could even challenge the dictatorships of the Arab world.
The impact of $110 oil on the GCC will naturally accelerate the region's economic transformation. Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the UAE will see trade surpluses soar as well as imports, defence spending, remittance flows, central bank and sovereign wealth fund reserves. Algeria, with its large population and chronic unemployment, will find it difficult not to raise food subsidies with its $50 billion petrodollar war chest. Libya has become the newest province of black gold after Colonel Gaddifi's diplomatic U-turn with Washington, the lifting of UN sanctions and the $2.5 billion settlement for the Pan Am Jumbo jet his intelligence agents destroyed in the skies above Lockerbie, Scotland.

Source: www.khaleejtimes.com


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International

Iraq marks fifth anniversary of bloody war
AFP, Baghdad


Iraq on Thursday will mark the fifth anniversary of the US-led invasion that toppled brutal dictator Saddam Hussein, but also plunged a nation of 26 million people into chaos and bloodshed.
On March 20, 2003, US planes dropped the first bombs on Baghdad, to signal an invasion that would within three weeks topple Saddam's regime and leave US forces in charge of a resentful and rebellious people. On Wednesday, Iraqi President Jalal Talabani said the invasion ended Saddam's era of torture and tyranny.
"The brutal regime of the dictator fell ... the regime that ruled Iraq for decades, the decades of darkness. The decades that were of tyranny," said Talabani in a statement.
During Saddam's iron-fisted rule, he said, the prisons were full of "innocent prisoners. These cells were Saddam's theatres for torture and brutal crimes."
But five years since that day, Iraqis and US and allied forces still face daily attacks from insurgents and Islamist militants, and fighting between armed factions from both sides of Iraq's Sunni-Shiite sectarian divide goes on.
As the conflict enters its sixth year, peace activists launched protests acround the world, and US President George W. Bush once again defended his tainted legacy.
Bush acknowledged that the war has "come at a high cost in lives and treasure," but defended both the decision to invade and to boost the number of US troops in Iraq last year.
"The answers are clear to me: removing Saddam Hussein from power was the right decision-and this is a fight America can and must win," he said in a speech at the Pentagon, US military headquarters.
Anti-war activists are not impressed and launched sit-ins and marches across the United States on Wednesday, demanding an immediate withdrawal of US soldiers. "This war needs to end and it needs to end now," Leslie Cagan, national coordinator of United for Peace and Justice, told AFP.
Demonstrators said they would target government agencies, lawmakers, oil companies and "corporate media" for helping to promote and sustain the war. Bush has taken heart from recent signs that the bloodshed in Iraq has fallen, but even US commander General David Petraeus admits that the country has made insuffienct progress towards national reconciliation.
"Scoring a military victory is easy, but a political victory is more difficult to achieve," said Mustapha Alani, director of security studies at the Dubai-based Gulf Research Centre.
He said Washington had dismantled Saddam's regime and was now "unable to put it back together". The day-to-day reality on the ground is grim.
The war has killed more than 4,000 US and allied soldiers and tens of thousands of Iraqi civilians-between 104,000 and 223,000 died between March 2003 and June 2006 alone, according to the World Health Organisation.
 


Bhutto’s son in Pakistan for PM announcement: Party
AFP, Islamabad

The teenage son of slain opposition leader Benazir Bhutto returned to Pakistan on Wednesday to announce her party's nomination for the post of prime minister, a party spokesman said.
Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, a 19-year-old student at Britain's prestigious Oxford University, was named Bhutto's heir apparent in December following her assassination at a political rally.
The untested Bilawal is completing his studies, and in the interim his father Asif Ali Zardari has taken the reins of the Pakistan People's Party (PPP), which won the most seats in last month's parliamentary elections.
"Bilawal will announce the name of the prime minister. He has come to Pakistan, he is in Karachi," party spokesman Farhatullah Babar told AFP.
"The name of the prime minister will be announced when the (parliament) is reconvened for the election of the prime minister," which is expected next week, the spokesman said.
Bilawal earlier travelled to the mausoleum in rural southern Sindh province where Bhutto was buried and paid his respects, accompanied by his sister Bakhtawar and aunt Sanam Bhutto, witnesses said.
At the tomb in the village of Garhi Khuda Bakhsh, at least five thousand people gathered to see him and chanted slogans including: "O God, Benazir is innocent" and "Benazir is alive in the face of Bilawal."
Bhutto is buried in the tomb alongside her father Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto, also a former prime minister, who was hanged by military ruler Ziaul Haq in 1979.
Bilawal later travelled to the Bhutto ancestral home in the nearby town of Naudero. He is expected to leave for Islamabad on Thursday, Babar said.
Party insiders say the current front-runner for the position is Yousuf Raza Gilani, a long-term Bhutto loyalist who was parliamentary speaker during her government from 1993-1996.
They say the prime minister named by Bilawal may only hold the post for a few months until Zardari himself becomes eligible to become premier.
Zardari did not contest the elections because candidacies were filed before his wife's assassination but is likely to fight a by-election in her home constituency in May.


Dalai Lama pushes for talks with China
AFP, Taipei

Tibetan spiritual leader the Dalai Lama on Wednesday appealed for a resumption of talks with China following a wave of unrest in his Himalayan homeland.
In a letter released from his base in northern India, he asked world leaders to help push for dialogue with China and to press Beijing to show "restraint" in dealing with the violence in the remote region.
"We remain committed to... pursuing a process of dialogue in order to find a mutually beneficial solution to the Tibetan issue," the Dalai Lama wrote.
"I also seek the international community's support for our efforts to resolve Tibet's problems through dialogue, and I urge them to call upon the Chinese leadership to exercise the utmost restraint in dealing with the current disturbed situation and to treat those who are being arrested properly and fairly."
Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao said Tuesday that Beijing was willing to hold talks, but only after the Dalai Lama gave up what is viewed in China as a campaign for Tibet to be granted independence. Although the Dalai Lama repeated his accusation that China