wednesday, february 27, 2008 , falgun 15, safar 19, 1428 a.h

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Leading News

SC allows govt appeal, stays Hasina verdict
BDNEWS24, Dhaka

The Appellate Division has stayed a High Court verdict that quashed Azam J Chowdhury’s extortion case against former prime minister Sheikh Hasina.
A full appellate bench headed by chief justice Md Ruhul Amin stayed the High Court’s dismissal of the case on Tuesday after accepting the government’s leave to appeal against the verdict, and set March 16 for hearing to begin on the appeal.
The Appellate Division also temporarily upheld the High Court’s ban on proceedings of the extortion case in trial court.
Additional attorney general Salahuddin Ahmed, standing for the government, told bdnews24.com outside the court: "The court has only stayed the case proceedings against Sheikh Hasina in trial court."
"This has removed the barrier to conducting trials of other cases under emergency powers rules."
Hasina’s lawyer Rafique-ul-Huq said during the hearing: "The case filed against Sheikh Hasina refers to an occurrence which dates back to the pre-emergency period. Therefore, the case cannot be tried under the Special Powers Act."
Appealing to the appeal court not to stay the High Court’s dismissal of the case, barrister Rafique said: "The court may accept the government appeal filed against the High Court verdict, but cannot halt the efficacy of the verdict."
"The verdict in question will be settled after hearing the appeal."
Additional attorney general Salahuddin Ahmed, requesting the stay order, told the court: "The High Court in its verdict has raised questions concerning sections of the Special Powers Act." "If the verdict is upheld, the Special Powers Act would have to be annulled, jeopardising the trial of all cases filed under the act."
Salahuddin also mentioned a High Court ruling by a different bench, headed by Justice ABM Khairul Haque, that cancelled a separate writ petition challenging the validity of trying of another case under the Special Powers Act. The High Court verdict in that case contradicts the same court’s verdict in the Hasina case, Salahuddin said.
"The Supreme Court should resolve such legal contradictions," he said.
Security remained stepped up at the Supreme Court premises Tuesday through the second day proceedings on the government’s leave to appeal.
The government filed a motion with the Appellate Division on Feb 18 seeking leave to appeal the High Court verdict.
On Feb 6, the High Court dismissed the extortion case filed by Azam J Chowdhury against Hasina, after ruling illegal its inclusion under emergency powers rules. The ruling came on a writ petition filed by Hasina challenging the case’s trial under EPR.
Businessman Azam J Chowdhury filed the Tk 3 crore extortion case against Sheikh Hasina and Sheikh Selim with Gulshan police on June 13, 2007. The case details said the accused received a total of Tk 2.99 crore from the litigant in 2001 in exchange for illegally awarding a contract to build Siddhirganj Power Station.
Hasina was arrested on July 16, 2007. She was shown arrested in the case later the same day after inclusion of the case proceedings under EPR.
Charges were framed against the accused, including Sheikh Hasina’s sister, Rehana, on
Jan 13.


News Analysis
CAS’s Commitment to the Indians

Mahmud ur Rahman Choudhury

On 26 February 2008, "The Hindu", an Indian English daily published an article on the visit of Gen Moeen U Ahmed, our CAS, where it is claimed that the CAS has committed to honour Indian martyrs of 1971 on 25th of March each year. If the CAS has indeed made such a commitment, he has made grave errors on a number of counts : firstly, the CAS can in no way be taken to represent the people or the Government of Bangladesh because the people have not elected him so; secondly, he heads one of the many key institutions of our State and is therefore a servant of the state not its representative; thirdly and most importantly 25th or 26th of March has nothing to do with Indian martyrs, this is the day in which Pakistanis mounted a genocide on our people and the day is remembered as a day of sorrow, as the beginning of our fight for independence, it is purely our own, not to be shared or compared with anything else.
Nobody is denying that the Indians have a great even a decisive contribution towards our independence particularly in its last phases in December 1971, when India declared a war against Pakistan and when their soldier fought and died alongside our people. We recognize that contribution but not by commemorating on dates and days which are historically, culturally and emotionally significant to us and only to us as a Nation-State. The people of Bangladesh are simply not going to countenance such an act, least of all by the CAS of our Army. We only hope that the news is not correct; if it is, the news and the act is likely to generate a lot of protest and outright hostility towards the Army and the CAS who heads that Army. Therefore, the Army ought to immediately issue a clarification in this regard.
The Hindu article further claims that : "For the long term India is keen to improve ties with Bangladesh to an extent that it gets transit rights for its goods ... and the Chittagong port as well as a commitment on transit gas from Myanmar ... For the immediate future, it favours a commitment from the General to clamp down on anti-Indian militants perceived to be camping on Bangladesh territory." We hope that our CAS has not taken it upon himself to discuss let alone commit Bangladesh to such exceptionally sensitive issues which lie well beyond his competence and duties as CAS. For long, India has been trying to "improve relations" with Bangladesh in order to get these facilities but each successive government of Bangladesh has scrupulously avoided making such commitments which would be perceived to be tantamount to betraying the sovereignty of our State.
The agenda of the visit of our CAS to India has been kept rather nebulous; neither the Government nor the Army has seen it fit to inform our own citizens about the aim, purpose and agenda of that visit. Unfortunately, we are kept informed of that visit by Indian newspapers who we daresay have their own interests and agendas to project. That our own Government, our own Army and our own CAS do not take us, the people of this country, into confidence in a matter of such importance & concern is a sign of the times of declining governance and government and of declining answerability and responsibility of those in power.


  Hannan Shah blames EC for creating confusion
UNB, Gazipur


BNP chairperson’s adviser Brig Gen (retd) Hannan Shah on Tuesday squarely blamed the Election Commission for creating confusion over EC-BNP dialogue to hold back polls and demanded immediate resolution of the issue.
Shah made the accusation when he went to appear before the court of Additional Chief Judicial Magistrate in an extortion case against him. The outspoken BNP leader said, "The Election Commission can hold election much earlier should it have that willingness. And the sooner the election held, the better the countrymen will be benefited."
He demanded release of all the political detainees, including the two former premiers—BNP chairperson Khaleda Zia and Awami League President Sheikh Hasina.
Hannan Shah hailed Monday’s speeches given by AL leaders concerning the complications created over the withheld dialogue between BNP and the Election Commission on electoral reforms ahead of the polls. True to the dictum that politics sometimes creates strange bedfellows, district Awami League President and Gazipur poura Chairman AKM Mozammel Haq accompanied the leader of their rival party all the time after Shah reached the court in the morning.
Denouncing government attitude towards Hannan Shah, who has been arrested and released on bail thrice in the interim period, the AL leader said, "The government is behaving unfairly with him (Shah)."


EC-Jamaat Dialogue
Jamaat wants war criminals to be barred in polls
 
Staff Correspondent

Jamaat-e-Islami Bangladesh on Tuesday supported the Election Commission’s (EC) proposed electoral laws providing for barring the convicted war criminals from participating in the polls. It, however, warned the EC against any possible move to ban the religious political parties saying, "such move might thwart democratic atmosphere in the country." "There is much religious political parity in all democratic countries including India and UK," said Jamaat Secretary General Ali Ahsan Mohammad Mojaheed during its second round talks with the EC on electoral reforms. Referring to the proposals of different political parties for not allowing religious political parties to be registered with EC, Mojaheed said, "it is tantamount to an attack on religious beliefs and is against the spirit of country’s constitution." He also alleged that "a handful of political parties, which have no popular support, are trying to catch fish in the troubled waters by raising irrational and illogical demands."
Although the EC has proposed law to bar convicted war criminals from participating in the polls, not opposing this clause Jamaat complied with almost all EC’s proposals. It only opposed some issues including introduction of transparent ballot box and introduction of ‘no vote’. It also warned the EC against taking any steps going beyond its jurisdiction.
Like all other political parties, Jamaat also raised their doubt about the holding of elections on time. "To dispel all confusion, the election schedule specifying the poll date should be announced immediately," Mojaheed said, adding, "The EC’s first and foremost task is to hold the parliamentary election so it will have to exert all efforts to hold that poll not going for local elections." Mojaheed cautioned, "The EC’s as well as this caretaker government’s success hinges on holding a credible and timely election."
Barriaster Abdur Rajjak said, "We have no doubt over the cordiality of the EC in holding poll, but we are apprehending other factors which might thwart the election process. So in this case the EC will have to take tough stand in favour of holding election." In response, the Chief Election Commissioner, ATM Shamsul Huda, said, "We are firm on our road map." "We do not know who are behind making such confusion," Huda added.
Later talking to newsmen, Mojaheed said, "We asked the EC to expedite their task so the stalled parliamentary election can be held as per the announced road map. They will have to take immediate steps to bring BNP in the dialogue process to make it meaningful." Earlier, The EC held dialogue with Jatiya Samajtantrik Dal-Inu (JSD-Inu) and National Awami Party-Mojaffar (NAP-Mojaffar).
JSD President Hasanul Haque lodged a demand for not allowing the political parties having involvement in war crimes and run on the basis of religion to be registered with EC.


Jute goods in high demand in global markets
Rabiul Islam

The neglected jute sector may regain the country’s lost glory as the jute products being environment-friendly are now in high demand in global markets. Although the Government ignored the jute sector over the years on the plea of multifarious reasons including the decline of jute goods in international market and huge loss, it has recently earned Tk.267 crore from export of jute goods in the last six months. "We have earned Tk. 267 crore foreign currency from export of jute products in six months of the current financial year because the government allocated Tk. 150 crore in time to buy raw jute", said a high official of the Jute and Textile Ministry. He also said demands for jute goods have increased on global market as the jute products are bio-degradable and environment friendly. The Ministry sources informed that more Tk. 239 crore can be earned from jute goods as the Government in its stock has jute products worth Tk. 36 crore and raw jute of Tk. 60 crore from which jute goods of Tk. 203 can be produced.
Sources said the jute sector has begun to obtain profit as idle hours and production cost in state-owned jute mills have declined simultaneously and there is no disturbance from Combined Bargaining Agents (CBA). As a result, the production has gone up. The Jute and Textile Ministry reveals that the Government incurred a loss of Tk. 229 crore in the year 2005-2006 and Tk. 385 crore in 2006-2007.
Experts opined that delay in disbursing budgetary money for jute purchase, the Governments’ indifference towards public sector mills, power outage, posting of corrupt people in the management and no drive for grasping market potentials or creating demand caused huge loss in jute sector over the past years. Without identifying the causes of loss in jute sector, the Government has ignorantly shut down the state-owned jute mills one after another or privatised those, bringing down the number of jute mills to 14 from 77. Now only 14 state-owned jute mills are running under the Bangladesh Jute Mills Corporation (BJMC).


EPZ-FDI-Investments
Sheikh Didarul Islam

The Export Processing Zones (EPZ) of the country are playing a significant role in industrialization through facilitating the transfer of technology and development of forward and backward linkage industries in Bangladesh. Currently, some 264 industries are carrying out their operational activities in the eight EPZs, making an actual investment of around 1.29 billion US dollars.Two state-owned enterprises (SOE) has also been included in the EPZs. The eight EPZs have been contributing to the country’s national economy for several years. Laying stress on the expansion of country’s export processing zones, the present caretaker government has already approved two more EPZs in the districts of Munshigonj and Feni.
As part of the mission of the present caretaker government to facilitate economic development of the country through promoting foreign direct investment (FDI) and local investment and employment generation, the Bangladesh Export Processing Zone Authority (BEPZA) is considering creating new EPZs in order to keep pace with the present day need of the entrepreneurs from home and abroad.
Now-a-days the export processing zones are no more a traditional narrow enclave rather it is becoming more integrated with the economic development process of the entire Country, sources said. Besides, with the changing global trade and investment scenario, the BEPZA has revised its expansion strategy by making investment incentives and facilities more market-oriented and flexible with a view to accommodating diversified investors ranging from manufacturing to service sectors along with giant infrastructure projects, sources said.
Despite lesser growth in the last few years, the EPZs have attained an accelerated growth rate in investment and export in recent times. In the fiscal year 2005-06, a total of US 112.89 million dollars were invested in the EPZs. During the last fiscal (2006-07), the amount of FDI investment rose to 152.37 million US dollars which is 34 percent higher that in the previous financial year.

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One stop passport
Firoz Mamun

Giving wrong and false information, people who have become passport-holders under the two-hour long "one stop" instant service, are not being allowed to go abroad.
"To ease the people's sufferings and harassment and to get passport within two hours instantly without police clearance, Dhaka central passport office on September 23 of last year introduced one stop service. Taking the opportunity, foreign bound people in association with cheats and travel agencies provided false information in favour of them for getting passport instantly. But when police verification report was submitted to the passport office, the authority detected that many people furnished false information and even some of them totally avoided their real identities and whereabouts. So, the authority has already cancelled around 1,940 such passports based on false and fabricated information and informed the immigration and civil aviation authorities of the matter. Some 2,500 fabricated passports are now under process of cancellation. Besides, the immigration authority sent back 49 persons from the Zia International Airport as their passports were cancelled due to false information. Meanwhile the passport authority issued 18,625 passports so far under the one stop service", talking to The Bangladesh Today on Tuesday, a high official of Agargaon passport office told.
He further said on the basis of information when the concerned police officials tried to contact the people for verification, they failed to identify the whereabouts of the people. Talking to this correspondent, a person whose passport has been cancelled alleged, if police are not bribed, they do not actually submit correct information about the passport-seekers.
Meanwhile, the sufferings of the passport-seekers are yet to be reduced as cheats, touts and a section of unscrupulous officials of the passport office are still active in and around the passport office. Officials and employees of passport office, cheats and middlemen start pestering people as soon as they come to the Agargaon passport office for getting passports or other related works.
An organised gang staying inside a market adjacent to the passport office is engaged in producing fake passports and other documents using computers, machines and emboss seals. New comers to the office premises are their main targets. If anybody wants to avoid the gang, he is manhandled by them. At one stage, the thugs snatch his money, cell phone set and other valuables under the very nose of law enforcers and passport office officials, sources alleged.
On the other hand, people entering office for passport related works regularly become victims of harassment by a section of unscrupulous passport officials who maintain good relations with the cheats and middlemen. Such misbehaviour of passport officials and employees and the presence of such goons create a suffocating atmosphere everyday leading to harassment of the people. Most of the passport officials do not work for the clients unless they are paid extra money.
Sitting on chairs in every room, officials and employees start unnecessary questioning as soon as a client enters the room for his work. At the same time, a group of employees ask the person to come to them for work in exchange for extra money otherwise he will have to wait for an indefinite period.
"Several times earlier, I tried to get my passport through proper channel but I failed. At last I had to pay extra Tk 1,000 to an employee of the passport office for getting my passport," expressing resentment Haider Ali, a banker, told this correspondent. During a visit to the passport office, this correspondent found an anarchic situation prevailing there. A section of officials and employees were found crowding different corners of the office building and taking money from passport-seekers.


SME & Women Entrepreneurs
Staff Correspondent

Finance Adviser Dr AB Mirza Azizul Islam on Tuesday said Bangladesh could be a member of the middle-income group by the year 2020 if it can ensure the participation of women in its economical activities. Besides, he said the Government is now under tremendous economic pressure ahead of the next budget as it has to spend a big amount of its budget as subsidy to fuel and food sector. He was addressing as chief guest at a seminar on 'Strengthening Capacity of Women Entrepreneurs' organized by Bangladesh Women Chamber of Commerce and Industry (BWCCI) at the National Press Club yesterday with its President Selima Ahmad in the chair. The Adviser said, "the country's banking sector will have to update its loan allocation system to expedite the loans to its consumers and it should strengthen its monitoring system to ensure proper loan allocation to the SME and women entrepreneurs." He also said the Government would need to take immediate steps to ensure women representation in the boards of the state banks to look after the problems of the women entrepreneurs.
Speaking as the special guest, eminent economist Dr Atiur Rahman said, "there is a need for change in the policies of institutions for longevity of its policies and that's why all the entrepreneurs should raise their voice demanding institutional reforms of the banks."
He also urged the finance adviser to ensure the women representation in the board of the public banks to help the bank to identify potential women entrepreneurs. Atiur Rahman also said, "the BWCCI should identify the potential entrepreneurs and it should suggest the banks for their loan allocation." He urged the Government to give incentives to the women entrepreneurs saying, " if the Government wants to show social responsibility to its women, then it should give the incentives to some weak sectors of the country like the women entrepreneurs."
Senior researcher of Bangladesh Institute of Development Studies (BIDS) presented keynote paper on ' Bringing Women Entrepreneurs in Policy Focus for SME development in Bangladesh' where he made some recommendations including reducing the existing rates of bank interests for the women entrepreneurs and setting up SME unit in commercial banks and financial institutions. She also urged the Government to create women-friendly environment in banks and financial institutions, and fix SME friendly tax, duty and VAT structure. BWCCI President Selima Ahmad in her address of welcome said, "The Government should establish knowledge centre in every district to ensure that information needed for the women entrepreneurs are readily available."


Trail of War Criminals
Case filed against 12 persons
UNB, Chapainawabganj

Twelve persons were accused in a case filed on Tuesday of shooting down 12 innocent villagers during the liberation war in 1971 at remote Parchowk village of Shibganj upazila.
Additional chief judicial magistrate Ratneswar Bhattacharya after hearing the petitioner sent the case to Shibganj Thana for investigation and report.
Badiur Rahman, son of one of the victims Muslem Uddin, filed the case against Fazlu, Kubed, Murtaza, Aynal, Zafar Ali, Yasin, Mohsen Ali, Habu, Zillur Rahman, Deen Mohammad, Ilyas and Deen Mohammad - all now aged between 60 and 70 and hail from different villages of Shibganj.
The petitioner said the accused were Rajakars collaborating with Pakistani occupation forces during the liberation war. On October 7, 1971 they rounded up his father and 11 other innocent villagers, who were brutally killed in brush fire near Monakasha Humayun Reza High School.


Crime Watch

3 agyan party men netted
Crime Watch Desk, TBT

A team of DB police arrested three members of Agayan Party and recovered medicine used by the gang to make people unconscious and different books from their possession on Monday.
Acting on tip-off, a team of DB police conducted a drive in Motijheel commercial area and arrested three members of Agayan party. The arrestees are Harun-r-Rashid (32), Akkas Ali (30) and Atikur Rahman (29). The arrestees are the members of a organised Agayan party, police source said.

Two commit suicide
UNB, Dhaka

A newly-wed housewife and a teenaged boy allegedly committed suicide on Monday in Thakurgaon and Jamalpur district.
In Thakurgaon, newly married Champa Rani (20), committed suicide by hanging herself at Singia village in Sadar upazila.
Family sources said Champa Rani (20), daughter of Khagen Mohan of Basdebpur village, was married to Satyen Barman of the village 15 days ago. The reason behind the suicide could not be known immediately.
In Jamalpur, a candidate of SSC examination was committed suicide by hanging at Jamuna Fertilizer Factory housing colony in Sarishabari upazila Monday morning.
Police said Tushar, 16, son of Jamuna Fertilizer Factory employee Azizur Rahman took his own life by hanging himself from the ceiling fan at his room.
On information police recovered the body and sent to hospital morgue for autopsy.

Seven hijackers, muggers arrested in city
UNB, Dhaka

Rapid Action Battalion (RAB) members, in separate drives, arrested four taxicab hijackers and three muggers from the city's Bijoynagar and Motijheel areas Monday midnight.
RAB sources said a patrol team of RAB-3 chased four hijackers when they were running away after hijacking a taxicab.
As the hijackers reached Bijoynagar area, the elite force members arrested Shahjahan, 33, Foyez Islam Raju, 25, Badrul Alam, 27, and Rafiqul Islam, 40, along with the taxicab at about 11:00 pm.
Later, the RAB men searched the cab and recovered four sharp weapons and some gold ornaments.
In another drive, RAB personnel arrested Kajol, 20, Mithu, 19, and Sabuj, 21, from the city's commercial area Mothijheel for their alleged involvement in mugging.
A number of sharp weapons were also seized from their possession.
Separate cases were filed with Paltan and Mothijheel police stations.

BDR seizes smuggled garlic
BSS, Sunamganj

Members of Bangladesh Rifles (BDR) seized 104 sacks of garlic while being smuggled out of the country by 13 small boats through the bordering Konimara river under Doarabazar upazila on Monday.
Sources said a team of BDR jawans from Sonalichela BOP seized the garlic while on patrol duty. Sensing the presence of the border guards the smugglers left the place leaving behind the boats loaded with garlic.
BDR sources said the seized 8,008 kg garlic valued Tk 3,23,440 and the boats worth about Tk 1,95,000 were handed over to Chhatak customs office.

Businessman stabbed, robbed
UNB, Sylhet

Snatchers stabbed a businessman and took away about Tk 2 lakh from him at Kanaighat Bazar in Kanaighat upazila on Sunday night.
Local sources said Alauddin Chowdhury, 55, also a former UP member came under attack at about 11pm on way home from his business centre. The muggers stabbed him severely and looted Tk 1.83 lakh from him. Hearing Alauddin's screaming, police rushed in and rescued Alauddin. They admitted him to Kanaighat Upazila Health Complex. Later, he was shifted to Sylhet Osmani Medical College Hospital as his condition deteriorated. Victim's wife filed a case with the police.

Mobile court realizes Tk 63,000
BSS, Kushtia

A mobile court here realized fine Tk 63,000 from a bakery in the town for adulterating food on Sunday.
Official sources said the court found adulterated food and food ingredients at the Shahin Bakery during an anti-adulteration drive and fined the amount. First class magistrate M Azadur Rahman was present during the drive, sources said.

Forrester, gardener nabbed
for timber smuggling
UNB, Jamalpur

Sarishabari Upazila Forest Officer and his gardener were arrested on Sunday night on charge of smuggling of timber.
Police said local people caught forest officer Abdur Rouf and his gardener Mozammel Huq from the Station Road in the upazila headquarters at about 9pm while lifting timber, worth over Tk 1 lakh, by a van.
Later, they were handed over to police. The seized timber were deposited with local police station. A case was filed in this connection.

3 terrorists held with firearms
UNB, Sylhet

RAB members arrested three terrorists along with two firearms and five bullets from Mirapara area in the city Sunday night.
Acting on secrete information a team of RAB-9 raided Uzzal restaurant in the area and arrested Shaheen Ahmed (26), Manikur Rahman alias Kala Maink (27), and Abdul Matin (26), along with 2 revolvers and the bullets.
RAB sources said the terrorists were wanted in several cases.
Another report from Jhenidah said: Police arrested five snatchers along with five knives from Paglakanai and Bepari para areas of the town early Monday.

3 get life-term in Sirajganj
A Correspondent, Sirajganj

The court in Sirajganj sentenced life-term to three men with Rigorous Imprisonment (RI) in a kidnap-murder case on Tuesday.
The court also fined the convicts Tk 20,000 each, in default, to suffer another one year RI.
The convicts are: Md. Ahsan Habib (30), son of Afsar Ali, of village Biaraghat in Gurudashpur upazila under Natore, Md. Nasim (27), son of Naosher Ali and Abul Kalam (29), son of Refat Ali, of village Magura-Benod, under Taras upazila of the district.
Satendra Nath, the additional district and session judge-1, pronounced the verdict. According to the prosecution, the convicts kidnapped a minor boy, Md. Aminul Islam (7), son of Md. Sekander Ali, of Magura-Benod village on January 3, 2002 and demanded Tk. 50,000 as ransom from his parents. After refusal, they killed the boy and threw the body in a canal.
Later, deceased's father lodged a case with Taras police station accusing eight persons. The others five of the case were acquitted as the charges against them not proved.

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Editorial

Misgivings About Elections

On 24 February 2008, the CEC while speaking at the 2nd round of dialogues with the political parties claimed that misgivings about elections were being created by TV talk shows; he actually suggested that people ought to stop watching these TV talk shows in order not to be confused about different issues relating to elections!
Well, the CEC is certainly entitled to his opinions and even suggestions but so are other people which includes the electronic and print media whose role it is to put up news, project views and opinions which are of interest and concern to the general public - how else would the citizenry be kept informed about events which affect their lives and living. We don't see the CEC shying away from the media while expressing his views and opinions so why would he want others to stay away from watching TV talk shows? We hope that the CEC is not suggesting that he is the only source of truth as far as elections are concerned. Already the Emergency Government has come down hard on the TV, banning a couple of stations from airing talk shows on political issues, further curbing of such shows would be tantamount to denying the basic human right of free expression and right to information.
Coming to the issue of elections, there is no denying that there are indeed misgivings in the minds of the people regarding the direction elections will be taking and these misgivings are not created by the media but by the activities and pronouncements of the Emergency Government and the EC. Two advisers of the Government, Mr. Hassan Ariff and Maj Gen Matin have already opined that there is no bar to holding elections under the Emergency as some elections were held in the past under emergencies and martial-law governments. Such opinions are in direct contravention to the demands of every political party as well as the general populace who all want to see the Emergency go, the earlier, the better. Therefore, the first point of confusion and misgiving which the Government and the EC is unable and unwilling to clarify is : Are we to have elections under the Emergency or not? Elections under the Emergency and elections without the Emergency denote two differing and contradictory sets of factors, conditions, situations and constraints.
The EC has created conditions to keep the BNP out of any dialogues, the BNP which is not only a major political party but also a party which has formed two governments within the last 15 years and the EC seems set to go the full way without the BNP's participation. The matter is so glaring that even the BNP's arch rival the AL has seen fit to not only voice its opinion against it but has also raised doubts about the fairness and validity of an election which keeps the BNP out of the process and possibly out of elections too. Thus a significant portion of our voting public are being deliberately denied a representation in the process of expressing their views through a dialogue with the EC. Therefore, the second point of confusion and misgivings is : Would any process, be they dialogues or elections, have any validity, acceptance or indeed legitimacy from which the BNP, one of the two major political parties, is kept out?
The EC seems to be obsessed with processes rather than outcomes; the process of dialogue ought to have lead to an outcome of broad consensus on how to hold a free, fair and acceptable election at the shortest possible time. The process is so important to the EC that it is willing and indeed going ahead with its 2nd round of dialogues with political parties who have received either no votes or miniscule percentages of votes in elections over the last two decades, the only exception being the AL. Emphasizing on process rather than outcomes is typically the view point and preferred method of operation of a hide-bound bureaucracy or civil service and is not conducive to outcomes such as acceptable elections. So the third and last point of confusion and misgiving is : Are these dialogues leading us to legitimate and valid election within this year?
If confusions and misgivings are to be avoided the EC ought to answer the 3 questions, raised in this editorial, to the satisfaction of major political parties and to the general citizenry. Stopping people watching TV talk shows is not going to allay people's confusions and misgivings.

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Analysis

The Enduring Power of Ethnic Nationalism

Ethnonationalism has played a more profound and lasting role in modern history than is commonly understood.

Jerry Z. Muller

Projecting their own experience onto the rest of the world, Americans generally belittle the role of ethnic nationalism in politics. After all, in the United States people of varying ethnic origins lives cheek by jowl in relative peace. Within two or three generations of immigration, their ethnic identities are attenuated by cultural assimilation and intermarriage. Surely, things cannot be so different elsewhere.
Americans also find ethnonationalism discomfiting both intellectually and morally. Social scientists go to great lengths to demonstrate that it is a product not of nature but of culture, often deliberately constructed. And ethicists scorn value systems based on narrow group identities rather than cosmopolitanism.
But none of this will make ethnonationalism go away. Immigrants to the United States usually arrive with a willingness to fit into their new country and reshape their identities accordingly. But for those who remain behind in lands where their ancestors have lived for generations, if not centuries, political identities often take ethnic form, producing competing communal claims to political power. The creation of a peaceful regional order of nation-states has usually been the product of a violent process of ethnic separation. In areas where that separation has not yet occurred, politics is apt to remain ugly.
A familiar and influential narrative of twentieth-century European history argues that nationalism twice led to war, in 1914 and then again in 1939. Thereafter, the story goes, Europeans concluded that nationalism was a danger and gradually abandoned it. In the postwar decades, western Europeans enmeshed themselves in a web of transnational institutions, culminating in the European Union (EU). After the fall of the Soviet empire, that transnational framework spread eastward to encompass most of the continent. Europeans entered a postnational era, which was not only a good thing in itself but also a model for other regions. Nationalism, in this view, had been a tragic detour on the road to a peaceful liberal democratic order.
This story is widely believed by educated Europeans and even more so, perhaps, by educated Americans. Recently, for example, in the course of arguing that Israel ought to give up its claim to be a Jewish state and dissolve itself into some sort of binational entity with the Palestinians, the prominent historian Tony Judt informed the readers of The New York Review of Books that "the problem with Israel ... [is that] it has imported a characteristically late-nineteenth-century separatist project into a world that has moved on, a world of individual rights, open frontiers, and international law. The very idea of a 'Jewish state' ... is an anachronism."
Yet the experience of the hundreds of Africans and Asians who perish each year trying to get into Europe by landing on the coast of Spain or Italy reveals that Europe's frontiers are not so open. And a survey would show that whereas in 1900 there were many states in Europe without a single overwhelmingly dominant nationality, by 2007 there were only two, and one of those, Belgium, was close to breaking up. Aside from Switzerland, in other words -- where the domestic ethnic balance of power is protected by strict citizenship laws -- in Europe the "separatist project" has not so much vanished as triumphed. Far from having been superannuated in 1945, in many respects ethnonationalism was at its apogee in the years immediately after World War II. European stability during the Cold War era was in fact due partly to the widespread fulfillment of the ethnonationalist project. And since the end of the Cold War, ethnonationalism has continued to reshape European borders.
In short, ethnonationalism has played a more profound and lasting role in modern history than is commonly understood, and the processes that led to the dominance of the ethnonational state and the separation of ethnic groups in Europe are likely to reoccur elsewhere. Increased urbanization, literacy, and political mobilization; differences in the fertility rates and economic performance of various ethnic groups; and immigration will challenge the internal structure of states as well as their borders. Whether politically correct or not, ethnonationalism will continue to shape the world in the twenty-first century.
THE POLITICS OF IDENTITY
There are two major ways of thinking about national identity. One is that all people who live within a country's borders are part of the nation, regardless of their ethnic, racial, or religious origins. This liberal or civic nationalism is the conception with which contemporary Americans are most likely to identify. But the liberal view has competed with and often lost out to a different view, that of ethnonationalism. The core of the ethnonationalist idea is that nations are defined by a shared heritage, which usually includes a common language, a common faith, and a common ethnic ancestry.
The ethnonationalist view has traditionally dominated through much of Europe and has held its own even in the United States until recently. For substantial stretches of U.S. history, it was believed that only the people of English origin, or those who were Protestant, or white, or hailed from northern Europe were real Americans. It was only in 1965 that the reform of U.S. immigration law abolished the system of national-origin quotas that had been in place for several decades. This system had excluded Asians entirely and radically restricted immigration from southern and eastern Europe.
Ethnonationalism draws much of its emotive power from the notion that the members of a nation are part of an extended family, ultimately united by ties of blood. It is the subjective belief in the reality of a common "we" that counts. The markers that distinguish the in-group vary from case to case and time to time, and the subjective nature of the communal boundaries has led some to discount their practical significance. But as Walker Connor, an astute student of nationalism, has noted, "It is not what is, but what people believe is that has behavioral consequences." And the central tenets of ethnonationalist belief are that nations exist, that each nation ought to have its own state, and that each state should be made up of the members of a single nation.
The conventional narrative of European history asserts that nationalism was primarily liberal in the western part of the continent and that it became more ethnically oriented as one moved east. There is some truth to this, but it disguises a good deal as well. It is more accurate to say that when modern states began to form, political boundaries and ethnolinguistic boundaries largely coincided in the areas along Europe's Atlantic coast. Liberal nationalism, that is, was most apt to emerge in states that already possessed a high degree of ethnic homogeneity. Long before the nineteenth century, countries such as England, France, Portugal, Spain, and Sweden emerged as nation-states in polities where ethnic divisions had been softened by a long history of cultural and social homogenization.
In the center of the continent, populated by speakers of German and Italian, political structures were fragmented into hundreds of small units. But in the 1860s and 1870s, this fragmentation was resolved by the creation of Italy and Germany, so that almost all Italians lived in the former and a majority of Germans lived in the latter. Moving further east, the situation changed again. As late as 1914, most of central, eastern, and southeastern Europe was made up not of nation-states but of empires. The Hapsburg empire comprised what are now Austria, the Czech Republic, Hungary, and Slovakia and parts of what are now Bosnia, Croatia, Poland, Romania, Ukraine, and more. The Romanov empire stretched into Asia, including what is now Russia and what are now parts of Poland, Ukraine, and more. And the Ottoman Empire covered modern Turkey and parts of today's Bulgaria, Greece, Romania, and Serbia and extended through much of the Middle East and North Africa as well.
Each of these empires was composed of numerous ethnic groups, but they were not multinational in the sense of granting equal status to the many peoples that made up their populaces. The governing monarchy and landed nobility often differed in language and ethnic origin from the urbanized trading class, whose members in turn usually differed in language, ethnicity, and often religion from the peasantry. In the Hapsburg and Romanov empires, for example, merchants were usually Germans or Jews. In the Ottoman Empire, they were often Armenians, Greeks, or Jews. And in each empire, the peasantry was itself ethnically diverse.
Up through the nineteenth century, these societies were still largely agrarian: most people lived as peasants in the countryside, and few were literate. Political, social, and economic stratifications usually correlated with ethnicity, and people did not expect to change their positions in the system. Until the rise of modern nationalism, all of this seemed quite unproblematic. In this world, moreover, people of one religion, language, or culture were often dispersed across various countries and empires. There were ethnic Germans, for example, not only in the areas that became Germany but also scattered throughout the Hapsburg and Romanov empires. There were Greeks in Greece but also millions of them in the Ottoman Empire (not to mention hundreds of thousands of Muslim Turks in Greece). And there were Jews everywhere -- but with no independent state of their own.
THE RISE OF ETHNONATIONALISM
Today, people tend to take the nation-state for granted as the natural form of political association and regard empires as anomalies. But over the broad sweep of recorded history, the opposite is closer to the truth. Most people at most times have lived in empires, with the nation-state the exception rather than the rule. So what triggered the change?
The rise of ethnonationalism, as the sociologist Ernest Gellner has explained, was not some strange historical mistake; rather, it was propelled by some of the deepest currents of modernity. Military competition between states created a demand for expanded state resources and hence continual economic growth. Economic growth, in turn, depended on mass literacy and easy communication, spurring policies to promote education and a common language -- which led directly to conflicts over language and communal opportunities.
Modern societies are premised on the egalitarian notion that in theory, at least, anyone can aspire to any economic position. But in practice, everyone does not have an equal likelihood of upward economic mobility, and not simply because individuals have different innate capabilities. For such advances depend in part on what economists call "cultural capital," the skills and behavioral patterns that help individuals and groups succeed. Groups with traditions of literacy and engagement in commerce tend to excel, for example, whereas those without such traditions tend to lag behind.
As they moved into cities and got more education during the nineteenth and early twentieth centuries, ethnic groups with largely peasant backgrounds, such as the Czechs, the Poles, the Slovaks, and the Ukrainians found that key positions in the government and the economy were already occupied -- often by ethnic Armenians, Germans, Greeks, or Jews. Speakers of the same language came to share a sense that they belonged together and to define themselves in contrast to other communities. And eventually they came to demand a nation state of their own, in which they would be the masters, dominating politics, staffing the civil service, and controlling commerce.
Ethnonationalism had a psychological basis as well as an economic one. By creating a new and direct relationship between individuals and the government, the rise of the modern state weakened individuals' traditional bonds to intermediate social units, such as the family, the clan, the guild, and the church. And by spurring social and geographic mobility and a self-help mentality, the rise of market-based economies did the same. The result was an emotional vacuum that was often filled by new forms of identification, often along ethnic lines.
Ethnonationalist ideology called for congruence between the state and the ethnically defined nation, with explosive results. As Lord Acton recognized in 1862, "By making the state and the nation commensurate with each other in theory, [nationalism] reduces practically to a subject condition all other nationalities that may be within the boundary. . . . According, therefore, to the degree of humanity and civilization in that dominant body which claims all the rights of the community, the inferior races are exterminated, or reduced to servitude, or outlawed, or put in a condition of dependence." And that is just what happened.
THE GREAT TRANSFORMATION
Nineteenth-century liberals, like many proponents of globalization today, believed that the spread of international commerce would lead people to recognize the mutual benefits that could come from peace and trade, both within polities and between them. Socialists agreed, although they believed that harmony would come only after the arrival of socialism. Yet that was not the course that twentieth-century history was destined to follow. The process of "making the state and the nation commensurate" took a variety of forms, from voluntary emigration (often motivated by governmental discrimination against minority ethnicities) to forced deportation (also known as "population transfer") to genocide. Although the term "ethnic cleansing" has come into English usage only recently, its verbal correlates in Czech, French, German, and Polish go back much further. Much of the history of twentieth-century Europe, in fact, has been a painful, drawn-out process of ethnic disaggregation.
Massive ethnic disaggregation began on Europe's frontiers. In the ethnically mixed Balkans, wars to expand the nation-states of Bulgaria, Greece, and Serbia at the expense of the ailing Ottoman Empire were accompanied by ferocious interethnic violence. During the Balkan Wars of 1912-13, almost half a million people left their traditional homelands, either voluntarily or by force. Muslims left regions under the control of Bulgarians, Greeks, and Serbs; Bulgarians abandoned Greek-controlled areas of Macedonia; Greeks fled from regions of Macedonia ceded to Bulgaria and Serbia.
World War I led to the demise of the three great turn-of-the-century empires, unleashing an explosion of ethnonationalism in the process. In the Ottoman Empire, mass deportations and murder during the war took the lives of a million members of the local Armenian minority in an early attempt at ethnic cleansing, if not genocide. In 1919, the Greek government invaded the area that would become Turkey, seeking to carve out a "greater Greece" stretching all the way to Constantinople. Meeting with initial success, the Greek forces looted and burned villages in an effort to drive out the region's ethnic Turks. But Turkish forces eventually regrouped and pushed the Greek army back, engaging in their own ethnic cleansing against local Greeks along the way. Then the process of population transfers was formalized in the 1923 Treaty of Lausanne: all ethnic Greeks were to go to Greece, all Greek Muslims to Turkey. In the end, Turkey expelled almost 1.5 million people, and Greece expelled almost 400,000.
Out of the breakup of the Hapsburg and Romanov empires emerged a multitude of new countries. Many conceived of themselves as ethnonational polities, in which the state existed to protect and promote the dominant ethnic group. Yet of central and eastern Europe's roughly 60 million people, 25 million continued to be part of ethnic minorities in the countries in which they lived. In most cases, the ethnic majority did not believe in trying to help minorities assimilate, nor were the minorities always eager to do so themselves. Nationalist governments openly discriminated in favor of the dominant community. Government activities were conducted solely in the language of the majority, and the civil service was reserved for those who spoke it.
In much of central and eastern Europe, Jews had long played an important role in trade and commerce. When they were given civil rights in the late nineteenth century, they tended to excel in professions requiring higher education, such as medicine and law, and soon Jews or people of Jewish descent made up almost half the doctors and lawyers in cities such as Budapest, Vienna, and Warsaw. By the 1930s, many governments adopted policies to try to check and reverse these advances, denying Jews credit and limiting their access to higher education. In other words, the National Socialists who came to power in Germany in 1933 and based their movement around a "Germanness" they defined in contrast to "Jewishness" were an extreme version of a more common ethnonationalist trend.
The politics of ethnonationalism took an even deadlier turn during World War II. The Nazi regime tried to reorder the ethnic map of the continent by force. Its most radical act was an attempt to rid Europe of Jews by killing them all -- an attempt that largely succeeded. The Nazis also used ethnic German minorities in Czechoslovakia, Poland, and elsewhere to enforce Nazi domination, and many of the regimes allied with Germany engaged in their own campaigns against internal ethnic enemies. The Romanian regime, for example, murdered hundreds of thousands of Jews on its own, without orders from Germany, and the government of Croatia murdered not only its Jews but hundreds of thousands of Serbs and Romany as well.
POSTWAR BUT NOT POSTNATIONAL
One might have expected that the Nazi regime's deadly policies and crushing defeat would mark the end of the ethnonationalist era. But in fact they set the stage for another massive round of ethnonational transformation. The political settlement in central Europe after World War I had been achieved primarily by moving borders to align them with populations. After World War II, it was the populations that moved instead. Millions of people were expelled from their homes and countries, with at least the tacit support of the victorious Allies.
Winston Churchill, Franklin Roosevelt, and Joseph Stalin all concluded that the expulsion of ethnic Germans from non-German countries was a prerequisite to a stable postwar order. As Churchill put it in a speech to the British parliament in December 1944, "Expulsion is the method which, so far as we have been able to see, will be the most satisfactory and lasting. There will be no mixture of populations to cause endless trouble. . . . A clean sweep will be made. I am not alarmed at the prospect of the disentanglement of population, nor am I alarmed by these large transferences." He cited the Treaty of Lausanne as a precedent, showing how even the leaders of liberal democracies had concluded that only radically illiberal measures would eliminate the causes of ethnonational aspirations and aggression.
Between 1944 and 1945, five million ethnic Germans from the eastern parts of the German Reich fled westward to escape the conquering Red Army, which was energetically raping and massacring its way to Berlin. Then, between 1945 and 1947, the new postliberation regimes in Czechoslovakia, Hungary, Poland, and Yugoslavia expelled another seven million Germans in response to their collaboration with the Nazis. Together, these measures constituted the largest forced population movement in European history, with hundreds of thousands of people dying along the way.
The handful of Jews who survived the war and returned to their homes in eastern Europe met with so much anti-Semitism that most chose to leave for good. About 220,000 of them made their way into the American-occupied zone of Germany, from which most eventually went to Israel or the United States. Jews thus essentially vanished from central and eastern Europe, which had been the center of Jewish life since the sixteenth century.
Millions of refugees from other ethnic groups were also evicted from their homes and resettled after the war. This was due partly to the fact that the borders of the Soviet Union had moved westward, into what had once been Poland, while the borders of Poland also moved westward, into what had once been Germany. To make populations correspond to the new borders, 1.5 million Poles living in areas that were now part of the Soviet Union were deported to Poland, and 500,000 ethnic Ukrainians who had been living in Poland were sent to the Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic. Yet another exchange of populations took place between Czechoslovakia and Hungary, with Slovaks transferred out of Hungary and Magyars sent away from Czechoslovakia. A smaller number of Magyars also moved to Hungary from Yugoslavia, with Serbs and Croats moving in the opposite direction.
As a result of this massive process of ethnic unmixing, the ethnonationalist ideal was largely realized: for the most part, each nation in Europe had its own state, and each state was made up almost exclusively of a single ethnic nationality. During the Cold War, the few exceptions to this rule included Czechoslovakia, the Soviet Union, and Yugoslavia. But these countries' subsequent fate only demonstrated the ongoing vitality of ethnonationalism. After the fall of communism, East and West Germany were unified with remarkable rapidity, Czechoslovakia split peacefully into Czech and Slovak republics, and the Soviet Union broke apart into a variety of different national units. Since then, ethnic Russian minorities in many of the post-Soviet states have gradually immigrated to Russia, Magyars in Romania have moved to Hungary, and the few remaining ethnic Germans in Russia have largely gone to Germany. A million people of Jewish origin from the former Soviet Union have made their way to Israel. Yugoslavia saw the secession of Croatia and Slovenia and then descended into ethnonational wars over Bosnia and Kosovo.
The breakup of Yugoslavia was simply the last act of a long play. But the plot of that play -- the disaggregation of peoples and the triumph of ethnonationalism in modern Europe -- is rarely recognized, and so a story whose significance is comparable to the spread of democracy or capitalism remains largely unknown and unappreciated.
DECOLONIZATION AND AFTER
The effects of ethnonationalism, of course, have hardly been confined to Europe. For much of the developing world, decolonization has meant ethnic disaggregation through the exchange or expulsion of local minorities. The end of the British Raj in 1947 brought about the partition of the subcontinent into India and Pakistan, along with an orgy of violence that took hundreds of thousands of lives. Fifteen million people became refugees, including Muslims who went to Pakistan and Hindus who went to India. Then, in 1971, Pakistan itself, originally unified on the basis of religion, dissolved into Urdu-speaking Pakistan and Bengali-speaking Bangladesh.
In the former British mandate of Palestine, a Jewish state was established in 1948 and was promptly greeted by the revolt of the indigenous Arab community and an invasion from the surrounding Arab states. In the war that resulted, regions that fell under Arab control were cleansed of their Jewish populations, and Arabs fled or were forced out of areas that came under Jewish control. Some 750,000 Arabs left, primarily for the surrounding Arab countries, and the remaining 150,000 constituted only about a sixth of the population of the new Jewish state. In the years afterward, nationalist-inspired violence against Jews in Arab countries propelled almost all of the more than 500,000 Jews there to leave their lands of origin and immigrate to Israel. Likewise, in 1962 the end of French control in Algeria led to the forced emigration of Algerians of European origin (the so-called pieds-noirs), most of whom immigrated to France. Shortly thereafter, ethnic minorities of Asian origin were forced out of postcolonial Uganda. The legacy of the colonial era, moreover, is hardly finished. When the European overseas empires dissolved, they left behind a patchwork of states whose boundaries often cut across ethnic patterns of settlement and whose internal populations were ethnically mixed. It is wishful thinking to suppose that these boundaries will be permanent. As societies in the former colonial world modernize, becoming more urban, literate, and politically mobilized, the forces that gave rise to ethnonationalism and ethnic disaggregation in Europe are apt to drive events there, too.

(Continued on page-5)


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Viewpoints

The Enduring Power of Ethnic Nationalism

(Continued from page-4)
THE BALANCE SHEET
Analysts of ethnic disaggregation typically focus on its destructive effects, which is understandable given the direct human suffering it has often entailed. But such attitudes can yield a distorted perspective by overlooking the less obvious costs and also the important benefits that ethnic separation has brought.
Economists from Adam Smith onward, for example, have argued that the efficiencies of competitive markets tend to increase with the markets' size. The dissolution of the Austro-Hungarian Empire into smaller nation-states, each with its own barriers to trade, was thus economically irrational and contributed to the region's travails in the interwar period. Much of subsequent European history has involved attempts to overcome this and other economic fragmentation, culminating in the EU.
Ethnic disaggregation also seems to have deleterious effects on cultural vitality. Precisely because most of their citizens share a common cultural and linguistic heritage, the homogenized states of postwar Europe have tended to be more culturally insular than their demographically diverse predecessors. With few Jews in Europe and few Germans in Prague, that is, there are fewer Franz Kafkas.
Forced migrations generally penalize the expelling countries and reward the receiving ones. Expulsion is often driven by a majority group's resentment of a minority group's success, on the mistaken assumption that achievement is a zero-sum game. But countries that got rid of their Armenians, Germans, Greeks, Jews, and other successful minorities deprived themselves of some of their most talented citizens, who simply took their skills and knowledge elsewhere. And in many places, the triumph of ethnonational politics has meant the victory of traditionally rural groups over more urbanized ones, which possess just those skills desirable in an advanced industrial economy.
But if ethnonationalism has frequently led to tension and conflict, it has also proved to be a source of cohesion and stability. When French textbooks began with "Our ancestors the Gauls" or when Churchill spoke to wartime audiences of "this island race," they appealed to ethnonationalist sensibilities as a source of mutual trust and sacrifice. Liberal democracy and ethnic homogeneity are not only compatible; they can be complementary.
One could argue that Europe has been so harmonious since World War II not because of the failure of ethnic nationalism but because of its success, which removed some of the greatest sources of conflict both within and between countries. The fact that ethnic and state boundaries now largely coincide has meant that there are fewer disputes over borders or expatriate communities, leading to the most stable territorial configuration in European history.
These ethnically homogeneous polities have displayed a great deal of internal solidarity, moreover, facilitating government programs, including domestic transfer payments, of various kinds. When the Swedish Social Democrats were developing plans for Europe's most extensive welfare state during the interwar period, the political scientist Sheri Berman has noted, they conceived of and sold them as the construction of a folkhemmet, or "people's home."
Several decades of life in consolidated, ethnically homogeneous states may even have worked to sap ethnonationalism's own emotional power. Many Europeans are now prepared and even eager, to participate in transnational frameworks such as the EU, in part because their perceived need for collective self-determination has largely been satisfied.
NEW ETHNIC MIXING
Along with the process of forced ethnic disaggregation over the last two centuries, there has also been a process of ethnic mixing brought about by voluntary emigration. The general pattern has been one of emigration from poor, stagnant areas to richer and more dynamic ones.
In Europe, this has meant primarily movement west and north, leading above all to France and the United Kingdom. This pattern has continued into the present: as a result of recent migration, for example, there are now half a million Poles in Great Britain and 200,000 in Ireland. Immigrants from one part of Europe who have moved to another and ended up staying there have tended to assimilate and, despite some grumbling about a supposed invasion of "Polish plumbers," have created few significant problems.
The most dramatic transformation of European ethnic balances in recent decades has come from the immigration of people of Asian, African, and Middle Eastern origin, and here the results have been mixed. Some of these groups have achieved remarkable success, such as the Indian Hindus who have come to the United Kingdom. But in Belgium, France, Germany, the Netherlands, Sweden, the United Kingdom, and elsewhere, on balance the educational and economic progress of Muslim immigrants has been more limited and their cultural alienation greater.
How much of the problem can be traced to discrimination, how much to the cultural patterns of the immigrants themselves, and how much to the policies of European governments is difficult to determine. But a number of factors, from official multiculturalism to generous welfare states to the ease of contact with ethnic homelands, seem to have made it possible to create ethnic islands where assimilation into the larger culture and economy is limited.
As a result, some of the traditional contours of European politics have been upended. The left, for example, has tended to embrace immigration in the name of egalitarianism and multiculturalism. But if there is indeed a link between ethnic homogeneity and a population's willingness to support generous income-redistribution programs, the encouragement of a more heterogeneous society may end up undermining the left's broader political agenda. And some of Europe's libertarian cultural propensities have already clashed with the cultural illiberalism of some of the new immigrant communities.
Should Muslim immigrants not assimilate and instead develop a strong communal identification along religious lines, one consequence might be a resurgence of traditional ethnonational identities in some states -- or the development of a new European identity defined partly in contradistinction to Islam (with the widespread resistance to the extension of full EU membership to Turkey being a possible harbinger of such a shift).
FUTURE IMPLICATIONS
Since ethnonationalism is a direct consequence of key elements of modernization, it is likely to gain ground in societies undergoing such a process. It is hardly surprising, therefore, that it remains among the most vital -- and most disruptive -- forces in many parts of the contemporary world.
More or less subtle forms of ethnonationalism, for example, are ubiquitous in immigration policy around the globe. Many countries -- including Armenia, Bulgaria, Croatia, Finland, Germany, Hungary, Ireland, Israel, Serbia, and Turkey -- provide automatic or rapid citizenship to the members of diasporas of their own dominant ethnic group, if desired. Chinese immigration law gives priority and benefits to overseas Chinese. Portugal and Spain have immigration policies that favor applicants from their former colonies in the New World. Still other states, such as Japan and Slovakia, provide official forms of identification to members of the dominant national ethnic group who are noncitizens that permit them to live and work in the country. Americans, accustomed by the U.S. government's official practices to regard differential treatment on the basis of ethnicity to be a violation of universalistic norms, often consider such policies exceptional, if not abhorrent. Yet in a global context, it is the insistence on universalistic criteria that seems provincial.
Increasing communal consciousness and shifting ethnic balances are bound to have a variety of consequences, both within and between states, in the years to come. As economic globalization brings more states into the global economy, for example, the first fruits of that process will often fall to those ethnic groups best positioned by history or culture to take advantage of the new opportunities for enrichment, deepening social cleavages rather than filling them in. Wealthier and higher-achieving regions might try to separate themselves from poorer and lower-achieving ones, and distinctive homogeneous areas might try to acquire sovereignty -- courses of action that might provoke violent responses from defenders of the status quo.
Of course, there are multiethnic societies in which ethnic consciousness remains weak, and even a more strongly developed sense of ethnicity may lead to political claims short of sovereignty. Sometimes, demands for ethnic autonomy or self-determination can be met within an existing state. The claims of the Catalans in Spain, the Flemish in Belgium, and the Scots in the United Kingdom have been met in this manner, at least for now. But such arrangements remain precarious and are subject to recurrent renegotiation. In the developing world, accordingly, where states are more recent creations and where the borders often cut across ethnic boundaries, there is likely to be further ethnic disaggregation and communal conflict. And as scholars such as Chaim Kaufmann have noted, once ethnic antagonism has crossed a certain threshold of violence, maintaining the rival groups within a single polity becomes far more difficult.
This unfortunate reality creates dilemmas for advocates of humanitarian intervention in such conflicts, because making and keeping peace between groups that have come to hate and fear one another is likely to require costly ongoing military missions rather than relatively cheap temporary ones. When communal violence escalates to ethnic cleansing, moreover, the return of large numbers of refugees to their place of origin after a cease-fire has been reached is often impractical and even undesirable, for it merely sets the stage for a further round of conflict down the road.
Partition may thus be the most humane lasting solution to such intense communal conflicts. It inevitably creates new flows of refugees, but at least it deals with the problem at issue. The challenge for the international community in such cases is to separate communities in the most humane manner possible: by aiding in transport, assuring citizenship rights in the new homeland, and providing financial aid for resettlement and economic absorption. The bill for all of this will be huge, but it will rarely be greater than the material costs of interjecting and maintaining a foreign military presence large enough to pacify the rival ethnic combatants or the moral cost of doing nothing.
Contemporary social scientists who write about nationalism tend to stress the contingent elements of group identity -- the extent to which national consciousness is culturally and politically manufactured by ideologists and politicians. They regularly invoke Benedict Anderson's concept of "imagined communities," as if demonstrating that nationalism is constructed will rob the concept of its power. It is true, of course, that ethnonational identity is never as natural or ineluctable as nationalists claim. Yet it would be a mistake to think that because nationalism is partly constructed it is therefore fragile or infinitely malleable. Ethnonationalism was not a chance detour in European history: it corresponds to some enduring propensities of the human spirit that are heightened by the process of modern state creation, it is a crucial source of both solidarity and enmity, and in one form or another, it will remain for many generations to come. One can only profit from facing it directly.

(JERRY Z. MULLER is Professor of History at the Catholic University of America. Source: www.foreignaffairs.org).


Pakistan after Polls

The Feb 18 election was a victory of the democratic process and moderation in Pakistan and would serve as a stabilizing factor.

Dr. Abdul Ruff Colachal

The February 18 poll in Pakistan has left none of Pakistan's parties with a majority in the National Assembly and negotiations are continuing between rivals keen to forge a coalition big enough to hold power in the 342-seat parliament. Though PPP and PML-N have agreed to form a coalition government, they're talking about a national-consensus government. It remains to be seen whether they can carry on their much-lauded effort to get along with one another for a long time because both want to be the most popular parties and have their own agendas. Sharif's party had yet to decide whether to join a PPP-led government or support it without being part of it. "Either is possible. It is being worked out," said party chairman Raja Zafar-ul-Haq. In another sign of looming trouble for Musharraf, Sharif said he and Zardari had agreed in principle to restore judges Musharraf fired when he imposed emergency rule in November. The judges, if reinstated, can be expected to take up the question of the eligibility of Musharraf to stand for re-election as president while still army chief last October. They were expected to rule against Musharraf when he imposed the emergency.
Pakistan's opposition election winners were already trying to forge a coalition on 22 Feb, raising the prospect of a government intent on forcing U.S. ally President Pervez Musharraf from power. A coming together of opposition parties are leaving the president vulnerable to a hostile parliament. U.S. President George W. Bush's administration has urged the next government to work with Musharraf and says Washington needs Pakistan -- which borders Afghanistan where U.S. and NATO forces are fighting Islamist militants -- as an ally. Nawaz Sharif, the Prime Minister Musharraf overthrew in 1999 and whose PML-N came second in the vote, told a news conference after his meeting with Zardari that the two parties would work together to form a government. Zardari, whose PPP won the most seats but not an overall majority, said he wanted a broad government but one excluding the main party that backs Musharraf.
Sharif met Asif Ali Zardari, former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto's widower in Islamabad on Feb. 21 evening for their first face-to-face talks since the election. If they forge a coalition, it will be the first time in Pakistan's history the two main parties have come together. Musharraf's 1999 coup ended a chaotic decade of civilian rule alternating between Bhutto and Sharif governments. Zardari and Sharif also separately met with leaders of the Awami National Party, a Pashtun nationalist party set to join them in a coalition after sweeping Islamists out of power in North West Frontier Province.
The Election Commission is expected to issue official results on March 1. Musharraf should then convene an inaugural session of the National Assembly. But how soon after may depend on whether there is a government-in-waiting, as the president has to invite a member commanding the confidence of the majority to become prime minister.
President Pervez Musharraf is overwhelmed by the fact that his government could successfully conduct a free and fair poll to put in place a new government, said the Feb 18 election was a victory of the democratic process and moderation in Pakistan and would serve as a stabilizing factor. As President, Musharraf is expected to guide and counsel the new government which he has volunteered. The President emphasized the need to continue with the goals of political stability, economic growth and the need for fighting terrorism. President Pervez Musharraf said that he desires a healthy and improved relationship between the President and Prime Minister for a better democratic system in the country.
President Musharraf, who never had been under illusion about PMLQ winning a landslide victory and was the worst sufferer of the assassination of Benazir Bhutto with whose PPP he wanted to forge an alliance to form a government, said that he has fulfilled his promise to the nation as well as the international community for holding of peaceful, transparent and fair general elections. He said that he is committed to making Pakistan a fully democratic state and he would ensure a workable environment with the Prime Minister the winning party chooses. He expressed his hope that the new PM and he would develop a close working relation as he did with ex Prime Minister Shaukat Aziz. The president said that he does not believe in politics of confrontation and would accept the mandate of the party, which forms the government and is ready to facilitate government formation.
It has been agreed that the PPP would designate the next prime minister. Officials from both parties said the frontrunner to be prime minister was Makhdoom Amin Fahim, the widely respected vice president of slain former PM Benazir Bhutto's Pakistan People's Party (PPP). "There is an agreement that Fahim should be the parliamentary leader and candidate for PM but the announcement is unlikely to be made public before the parliament is convened into session, most probably in the first week of March," a senior PPP official told AFP.
The commoners think some of these people who've been elected were corrupt during the previous regimes and therefore one should be a bit wary about the future. PPP-P, PML-N and ANP agreed to form a coalition government after winning elections. Asif Zardari and Nawaz Sharif agreed on a common agenda. This includes the restoration of democracy, end of military intervention and reinstatement of the deposed judges and independence of the judiciary. PPP and PML-N won a lion's share of seats in the National Assembly, but it has yet to be seen if the coalition enjoying a two-thirds majority in Parliament can get enough support to oust President Pervez Musharraf from power.
USA congratulated the President for holding free and fair elections which they said would lead to stable political environment in the country. The President appreciated the US assistance to Pakistan. Pakistan has been made an attractive destination for investment by pursuing liberal policies, US seems to be trying for cooperative coalition between Musharraf and the opposition parties in the future course.
PPP and PML-N want to sideline Pervez Musharraf from the whole process. If both the parties stay united and succeed in getting the support of MQM which is supportive of, then opposition would restrain the power of President Musharraf and, if possible, they would also construe that Musharraf's days would be numbered. If the opposition stays together on national issues and if Musharraf is ousted, the politicians will have complete command on the affairs to run the state.
Nawaz Sharif has been persistently demanding that the president step down peacefully; other options, including his impeachment through Parliament, remain open. PTI Chairman Imran Khan and Pakistan Bar Council have warned that if the judiciary is not restored, anarchy will creep up and the popular parties will have to face agitation. In the presence of a vibrant civil society and an aggressive media, the public opinion is likely to be respected. Pakistan Bar Council has already given the March 9 deadline for the restoration of judiciary to pre-November 3 status. It is most likely that a constitutional package will be tabled in Parliament by the new government to amend the Constitution under the heading of 18th Amendment and the main expected clauses are restoration and independence of the judiciary, change of name of NWFP, abolition of the National Security Council, dissolution of local governments and reversion of the Constitution to the status of October 12, 1999, keeping intact the women seats' clause. That might ignite further turmoil in the country.
It seems people do expect another poll pretty soon. Pervez Musharraf shed his uniform as per the demand of the opposition before he was elected to presidency as per constitution and his efforts to get a new Parliament elected does not mean he has lost his presidency. As such the demand by the opposition on the strength of poll offered by Musharraf, cannot talk of his removal from presidency. In stead of creating an anarchical situation in the country, already in turmoil for quite some time, the opposition should form the government and pursue pro-people policies to uplift the poor and advance the legitimate national interests. Mainly, Pakistan should not give a chance to its neighbor India, ill-focused on Pakistan's progress in any manner, to belittle Pakistan. Democracy is what the leaders and people perceive it to be and certainly not what the anti-Islamic world prescribes to Pa