|
Leading
News
EC holds informal talks with both
factions of BNP
Hannan pledges unity if formally
invited by EC
Mahbub hopeful of joining talks jointly
Taib Ahmed
The EC's apparent recognition of the loyalists as 'a
faction' of BNP seems to have been marred by Hannan Shah's
over enthusiastic 'undertaking' to bring about unity in
BNP if the EC sends an invitation letter to Khandoker
Delwar Hossain for formal talks on electoral reforms.
The EC which had so long stuck to its gun in recognising
only the pro-government splinter of BNP led by M Saifur
Rahman as the legitimate BNP. In a summersault move on
Wednesday the EC invited both the loyalists and reformists
for informal talks separately on Thursday to discuss the
unity issue of the party. But minutes after the end of the
EC-Delwar group meeting in which Hannan Shah committed to
unity in BNP in exchange for an EC invitation,
speculations were rife among the party rank and file that
Hannan Shah was executing the plans of the government and
the EC as regards the BNP.
On the EC's invitation, a 16-member delegation led by BNP
standing committee member Tanveer Ahmed Siddiqui met three
election commissioners where they tried to make them
understand as to why the Khandoker Delwar Hossain is the
legitimate Secretary General of BNP.
"We have categorically told the EC that Khandaker Delwar
is our secretary general. The EC has asked us to be
reunited before the formal talks. In reply, we told them
that the unity will take place in the party within 72
hours of inviting Khandoker Delwar Hossain for formal
talks," Hannan told newsmen emerging from the around
two-hour long meeting.
Indicating the Saifur-Hafiz faction, he said, "We will
come together with those who now call themselves
dissidents...we hope we would come unitedly."
Tanvir Siddiqui said they had candid discussions with the
EC and hoped that the discussion would have to be
fruitful. "BNP is an election-oriented party and is
prepared to take part in the next elections," he added.
However, Hannan Shah's statement made his fellow leaders
angry and they castigated Hannan Shah for his comments and
for not talking about the release of Khaleda Zia. Later
they decide to talk to the media once again when BNP joint
Secretary General Nazrul Islam Khan briefed the newsmen.
"Firstly, we have lodged our protest against the EC's
letter to our party Secretary General Khandoker Delwar
Hossain without mentioning his designation which is
objectionable and unacceptable," Khan said adding, "We
also told the EC that release of Begum Khaleda Zia is the
precondition of making any sort of dialogue successful and
that's why we urged the EC to take necessary steps to
release her."
Khan says, "It would be difficult for BNP to cooperate
with the EC unless invitation letter addressing Khandaker
Delwar Hossain as secretary general is sent."
Journalists were not allowed during the separate parleys
with the two groups of the immediate-past ruling party,
although they were earlier allowed to stay inside the
conference room during the dialogue with other political
parties.
Earlier at 10.30 am, a four-member delegation of reformist
faction led by a BNP standing committee member, Lt Gen (retd)
Mahbubur Rahman, held meeting with the commission.
As the meeting was over, Mahbub says, "Talks was held in a
cordial manner and we hoped the next election will be
free, fair and credible." About the party's unity, he
said, "we are hopeful of joining in the EC's dialogue
jointly."
On his way back from the EC, the reformist leader Mahbubur
Rahman once again come face to face of awkward situation
as a group of workers of Khaleda loyalist faction chased
him terming him 'traitor.'
Meanwhile, the loyalists' faction of BNP refused to sit
yesterday (Thursday) with the advisers of the government
to hold pre-dialogue talks, but opined that they are
likely to sit later on. "We have got instructions of Begum
Khaleda Zia which is positive and we will sit with the
govt for the pre-dialogue talks," Delwar told newsmen
after holding an hour-long meeting.
At noon on Thursday, Commerce Adviser Hossain Zillur
Rahman sent a SMS to Khandoker Delwar's mobile inviting
them for informal talks with the government Thursday
afternoon. Soon after the SMS, the loyalists' faction
convened an impromptu meeting at Khandoker Delwar's NAM
flat residence.
Mujibnagar Day observed
AL vows to free Hasina
Staff Correspondent
With a fresh vow to
establish an exploitation-free Sonar Bangla under the
leadership of Sheikh Hasina, Awami League (AL), its front
organisations and different socio-cultural organisations
celebrated 37th Historic Mujibnagar Day - commemorating
the formation of Bangladesh's first Government in exile -
on Thursday.
AL and its front organisations marked the day amid various
programme, including placing floral wreaths at the
portrait of Sheikh Mujib at Bangabandhu Memorial Museum at
Dhanmondi at 8:00am and paid tribute at the graves of Syed
Nazrul Islam, Tajuddin Ahmed, M Mansur Ali and others at
Banani graveyard, offering munajat, holding milad mahfil
and discussion meeting in the capital as well as at
Baidyanathtola Mango Grove in Meherpur.
Recalling the Historic Background of the Mujibnagar Day,
they paid rich tribute to the country's Independence hero,
Father of the Nation Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman,
who was declared president and supreme commander of the
armed forces at that time.
Addressing the JL meeting, AL Presidium Member Tofael
Ahmed expressed his grave concern over the Government's
role in celebrating the day as the Government did not
chalk out any programme commemorating the Historic Day
that was also an inspiration for the freedom fighters
during the liberation war in 1971.
He said, "We are Independent indeed but it's our
misfortune that AL president Sheikh Hasina, daughter of
Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, has been suffering from multiple
health complications in the makeshift jail on charge of
false and motivated cases."
Demanding immediate release of the detained AL president,
Tofael Ahmed said, "The vested quarters wants to ruin
Hasina's political career through implicating our leader
in different false and fabricated cases: they want to stop
her voice keeping her in jail but people are united and
they want to see Hasina as a free leader in public."
The veteran AL Presidium Member threatened to launch a
tough agitation to ensure the release of Haisna urging the
incumbent Government, "Don't test people's patience any
more. We are observing hunger strike and collecting mass
signatures inside the building till now but don't create
any circumstance that may lead us to take to the streets
for pressing home our demands."
Blasting the role of the Election Commission the former AL
minister said, "The authorities failed to do anything till
date as per its' announced roadmap."
He urged the Government to handover the state-power to the
peoples' elected representatives through holding a free,
fair and credible general election.
Referring to the recent clashes between the law enforcers
and the members of the Islamic activists at Baitul
Mukarram Mosque premises and Hathazari in Chittagong
centering the Women Development Policy-2008, the AL leader
said, "If we do anything, it's regarded as the violation
of the emergency power rules. On the other hand, when
fundamentalists attack police and journalists under open
sky and even loot a police station, they are released with
impunity."
Meanwhile, as part of the programme to mark the historic
day, three key party presidium members - Amir Hossain Amu,
Abdur Razzaq and Suranjit Sengupta - participated at
different programmes at Mujibnagar yesterday.
ACC
Investigate Corruption in BSMMUH, R&H, Coal Mine
Staff Correspondent
The Anti-Corruption Commission (ACC) has started
investigation into pecuniary corruptions in the
Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman Medical University and
Hospital (BSMMUH).
Speaking at a press briefing yesterday, ACC's DG (Admin)
Col Hanif Iqbal said that the ACC found allegation of
broad-scale corruption and as such it constituted a task
force to conduct enquiry into irregularities in the
hospital.
According to him, a three-member task force headed by
Major Maksudur Rahman along with two members has been
assigned to investigate the matter.
"There is allegation of widespread corruption which took
place at the time of establishment of the university and
it was repeated at different times afterwards. Mainly
irregularities were committed in purchasing medical and
laboratory equipments through high bidding causing a huge
loss to the national exchequer", he added.
He stated the ACC has already sent a letter to the Vice
Chancellor of the BSMMU asking him to allocate a room for
task force, delegate a hospital representative to deal
with task forces round-the-clock and supply necessary
files and documents. Already the task force members
contacted the university authority will start activities
from Sunday.
Apart from this, the ACC has seized files of 11 projects
of the Department of Roads and High Ways and its teams are
making spot visit to areas of projects to determine the
corruptions and the investigation still going on.
The ACC is examining the wealth statements submitted by
two former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina and Khaleda Zia
while it is considering filing of case against Khaleda
Zia's youngest son Arafat Rahman Coco for amassing illegal
wealth beyond his known sources of income and concealing
information in his wealth statement.
The investigation of corruption regarding coal mine at
Baropukuria is going on, some important files have been
seized and the IO is collecting information in this
regard. The ACC has prepared a list of those laws which
are obstructing the function of the commission and it
would send those laws to the Law Ministry for amendments.
BD
committed to food self-sufficiency, says Foreign Adviser
More employment for Bangladeshi workers in Canada
Staff Correspondent
Foreign Adviser Iftekhar Ahmed Chowdhury on Thursday said
Bangladesh is committed to attaining food sufficiency, and
reducing imports to the minimum.
He made this remark while a group of 20 international
volunteers of The Hunger Project led by Ms Jill Lester
called on him at his office yesterday. The members
comprised volunteers from Australia, Netherlands, Sweden,
the US, and Bangladesh.
Addressing the problem of food availability Iftekhar
Chowdhury said domestic production will have to be
increased enough to meet demands, particularly given the
soaring costs of food.
"With the bumper 'boro' harvest that is expected, and the
sufficiency in strategic stocks, there is unlikely to be a
crisis in this country. However, the world-wide storages
and spiralling prices need a global approach,
preferably-through the UN. We would make this point in the
forthcoming UNCTAD Conference in Accra," the Adviser said.
Lester praised the enthusiasm of the Bangladeshis and
observed that the institution that the government was
building would help sustainability of its current
achievements.
Meanwhile, the Foreign Adviser said new opportunities for
employment of Bangladeshi workers are opening up in Canada
Iftekhar Ahmed, who is also in charge of the Ministry of
Expatriates' Welfare and Overseas Employment, said that
the International Organization of Migration, the concerned
Ministry and the employers will sign a tripartite
agreement for detailed collaboration. Initially a number
of 100 placements would be made in the meat-processing
factories. They will be tested on basic English skills and
physical fitness," he told reporters," he further said.
A spokesman of the Ministry also stated that Bangladesh
Overseas Employment Services Limited is processing cases
for employment of 1150 workers to Canada in mainly
construction sector. In the meantime, Iftekhar Chowdhury
has directed the Ministry and the Bureau of Manpower,
Employment and Training to take steps to upgrade skills of
workers for possible employment in more developed
countries. "The Government will do all it can to implement
the 7-point strategy to expand markets and increase
workers' capabilities", he said.
"In the meantime, 250,000 workers have been provided
clearance for overseas employment in different countries
this year so far. At this rate we should be able to match
and even exceed the record numbers that we achieved during
the previous year", the Adviser added.
RAB
on an arrest spree
Staff Correspondent
To achieve daily target RAB has started arresting innocent
people from different places of capital Dhaka as well as
across the country, according to Detective Branch sources.
"As the members of RAB have been asked to show at least
ten arrested persons from their respective zones everyday,
to fulfill their target the elite force is now arresting
innocent people. After arresting the innocent people, RAB
members are branding them as hardened criminals, drug
traders, hoodlums, extortionists and robbers and handing
them over to respective police station," a highly placed
source in the Intelligence Branch told The Bangladesh
Today.
Around four thousand and seven hundred people from
different parts of the country as well as the capital were
arrested by RAB on various charges in the last three
months, RAB sources said.
While talking over the number of the arrestees, a high
official of Intelligence Branch said around 70 percent of
the arrestees are innocent because charges sheets against
them are yet to be framed.
In a bid to reduce countrywide criminal activists, the RAB
members are conducting drive and arresting people on
charges of terrorist activities including extortion, drug
trafficking and trading, snatching, killing and robbery.
But the investigation officers (IO) of different police
stations have failed to find out any involvement with the
criminal activists which had occurred, the sources also
said.
Commander AK Azad director of RAB media told The
Bangladesh Today that "RAB members are conducting a drive
against criminals on the basis of secret information and
arresting them with clear evidence. I am sure that the RAB
members are yet to launch any operation or arrest anyone
without allegation."
Back Page
ADB financed
projects enmeshing BD in debts: Economists at discussion
Staff Correspondent
The World Bank (WB),
International Monetary Fund (IMF) and Asian Development
Bank (ADB)-prescribed development projects are not only
creating a propitious atmosphere to help the
multi-national companies make more profits but also
enmeshing the people of Bangladesh in huge amount of debt.
This was observed by economists at a discussion on the
"Impact of ADB finance policy and ADB backed-projects in
Bangladesh" organized by Equity and Justice Working Group
(EJWG) at the National Press Club on Thursday.
Demanding withdrawal of protection of the WB, IMF and ADB
against any legal process, they said, such indemnity
against any legal process is causing a huge financial and
social loss to Bangladesh.
Since its inception, the ADB used to provide loans to the
developing countries to help build agricultural and other
large infrastructure over the last two decades. It also
financed the export-oriented industries. From 1991, the
ADB, like the WB and IMF, started interfering into the
developing countries' policy formulation activities, they
said.
Along with financial assistance, the ADB imposed several
conditions on Bangladesh such as opening up of the local
markets for the international business community and
liberalization of national economy so that free-market
economy can flourish quickly in the country, they said.
Like the other international lending agencies, the ADB put
pressure on the governments of Bangladesh to denationalize
the different state-owned sector, withdraw the government
control of public enterprises on the plea of poverty
alleviation and growth-oriented economy. All these ADB
prescriptions proved contrary to the national interest of
Bangladesh.
The ADB publicly advocates democracy, human rights, rule
of law, elimination of gender discrimination, extraction
of internal resources, curtailment of public expenditures,
mass participation in development work and right to
information, and environment protection but the lending
agency does not comply with these at the time of providing
loans to Bangladesh.
As a result, the ADB-financed projects create economic and
social discrimination through widening the difference
between the poor and the rich as the international agency
prefers the profit-based private sector to finance, the
economists said.
Govt
forms committee to probe rod-price hike
UNB, Dhaka
The government on Thursday decided to form a probe
committee to unveil the causes of abnormal price rises of
MS rod on the local market which hit hard country's
construction industry.
An emergency meeting with Commerce Adviser Dr Hossain
Zillur Rahman at the Commerce Ministry took the decision
and directed the committee to report its findings by April
25.
The Commerce Ministry convened the meeting against the
backdrop of price spiral of steel products where leaders
of steel manufacturers, real estate developers and other
government agencies like NBR, port authorities were also
present.
The meeting also made a number of decisions in order to
make the sector more competitive. The decisions include
widening the scope of importing scrap ship, undertaking
necessary measure to keep import of finished rod of 60
grade open and to fix reasonable rates of duty by
determining the differentials between the duty structures
for re-rolling mills and ship-breaking industries.
Commerce Secretary Firoj Ahmed and Additional Secretary
Golam Mostakin, TCB chairman Mohammad Ziaul Islam, NBR
member M Farid Uddin, President of Bangladesh Re-rolling
Mills Association Ali Hossain and REHAB president Mokarram
Hossain were, among others, present at the meeting.
The Commerce Ministry will again sit with the stakeholders
of steel and construction sectors on April 25 where the
big players in the sector will be asked to be present.
After the meeting, Commerce Advisor Dr Hossain Zillur
Rahman told reporters that the enforcement of the VAT law
would provide the scope to know the stock position of any
business. "So far, such law was not been enforced, but now
we have decided to enforce it under the legal coverage to
find out actual reasons and the persons responsible for
the abnormal price escalation," he said. "But the spirit
behind the decision is not to punish anybody," he added.
"The decision of importing 60-grade MS rod will create
huge investment opportunity in the country's ship-scrap
industries," Zillur further said. Now the ship-crap
business is confined within 22 business houses in the
country, only 10 of whom are active who have scope to run
syndicated business.
Rush for buying rice comes down as BDR opens new outlets
UNB, Dhaka
The Commander of BDR Task Force for "Dal Bhat" programme,
Col Md Mujibul Hoque, Thursday said the rush for buying
rice has come down with the availability of rice at
increased number of BDR outlets in the capital.
"The rush for rice has come down. People who were earlier
scared are now settled finding rice available at our new
outlets," he told reporters at the BDR Headquarters.
Explaining the BDR sales situation in the capital, Col
Hoque said some 650 metric tons of rice are being sold out
daily from 70 BDR outlets. He said though the rush has
eased, sales of rice did not come down. He said some 1.5
lakh to 2 lakh people are being benefited from buying rice
from the BDR shops everday. Col Hoque said 10 BDR men were
terminated from their services on specific charges of
irregularities at BDR outlets in last one year.
He said they would suggest the government to build up food
safety net in urban areas to keep stable market price in
future.
Asked if BDR will run the shops permanently, Col Hoque
said the BDR's primary responsibility is to maintain
security along the border. But, they are running the
outlets since the government asked them to tackle the
situation. He said, "We will think of opening fair price
shops if the government makes any such request." He said
such systems should be in place to face the bad times.
Raozan power station resumes operation
UNB, Dhaka
The country's power supply situation improved a little bit
as the unit-1 of Raozan Power station resumed generation
on Thursday.
The 120 MW-capacity unit of the power plant had to be shut
down Wednesday due to short supply of gas, worsening the
power supply situation. An official at the Power
Development Board (PDB) told UNB that the power plant
resumed electricity generation as the gas supply to it
restored today. The PDB official said the country
generated 3,580 MW of electricity during the peak hour
today against the demand for over 4,550 MW forcing the
authorities to go for a load shedding of about 1,000 MW
across the country.
Earlier on Wednesday, the generation was less than 3,400
against the same demand.
Crime
Man gets
life term for killing girl
UNB, Moulvibazar
A court here on Wednesday sentenced a man to life term
imprisonment for violating and killing an 11-year-old
girl.
The lifer Ali Hossain, 28, son of Babul Hossain of Kangela
village in Kamalganj upazila, was also fined Tk 10,000, in
default, to suffer one year RI more under section 302.
According to the prosecution, Ali Hossain raped and killed
Ferdousi, 11, when she along with her younger brother was
returning home from a fair on the night of January 16,
2004.
He also injured the younger brother of Ferdousi grievously
after being resisted by him.
After examining the records and witnesses, District and
Sessions Judge M Johurul Haque awarded the punishment.
In another section, the court also jailed him for 10 years
for injuring Ferdousi's brother and fined him Tk 5,000, in
default, to suffer one year RI more.
The court said that the prison sentences under the two
sections would run concurrently.
One gets life for violating woman
BSS, Netrakona
A youth was sentenced to life term rigorous imprisonment
for violating a woman in Kalmakanda upazila of the
district more than seven years ago.
Judge of the child and women repression prevention
tribunal ASM Salauddin Khan delivered the verdict in a
crowded courtroom on Wednesday.
The court also fined the convict Taka 5,000, in default,
to suffer one more year in prison.
The convict was identified as Sajal Chandra Shil, of
village Uttar Langura under Kalmakanda Upazila. After
investigation, police submitted chargesheet befor the
court against Sajal.
The judge, after examining the witnesses and evidence
delivered the judgment.
Girl gang raped
A Correspondent, Netrokona
Makshuda Begum (15) a school girl of class ten, of
Shaympur High School of village Gaglajur under Mohangonj
upazila in the district was gang raped by three miscreants
of same village at about 12 O'clock on Wednesday night.
Mohangonj Thana police sources said, when Makshuda Begum
daughter of late Ramjan Ali was sleeping in her house,
then the three men of same village, Hiron Miah, Musa and
Mirol Khan, entered into the house of Makshuda and took
away her forcibly to a near by jungle and gang raped her.
Seriously injured Makshuda was admitted to Mohangonj
Upazila health complex in critical condition. A case was
filed with Mohangonj police station in this connection.
Yet none was arrested.
Husband kills wife
UNB, Jhalakati
A pregnant housewife was killed allegedly by her husband
for dowry at Sonautha village in Kathalia upazila on
Monday.
Local people said Dulal tortured his seven-month pregnant
wife Honufa Begum, 35, to death in the afternoon as she
refused to bring Tk 2 lakh and gold ornaments as dowry
from her parents.
Honufa Begum and Dulal got married 11 years back and after
their marriage, parents of Honufa sent Dulal to abroad
where he stayed for four years. But after returning home
from abroad he started creating pressure on Honufa, mother
of two children, for the dowry.
Dulal and his family members went into hiding soon after
the killing. A case was filed.
Youth murdered
UNB, Sylhet
A youth was stabbed to death allegedly by his stepmother
at Lamakaji Lalargao village in Sadar upazila Wednesday
afternoon.
The dead was identified as Foisal Ahmed, 20.
Sources said second wife Fatema Begum, 35, after a quarrel
drove her husband Nuruddin Mollah out of the house.
When Foisal came to know the matter she locked into
altercation with him and at one stage Fatema hit him with
a sharp weapon, 'dao', leaving him critically injured.
He died on way to Sylhet Osmani Medical College Hospital.
On information, police recovered the body and sent it to
hospital morgue for autopsy.
Local people later handed over killer Fatema to police. A
case was filed.
Body of a minor boy recovered
BSS, Jamalpur
Police recovered the body of a minor boy from a banana
grove at Char Bhabasur Purbapara under Dewanganj upazila
on Wednesday.
Police suspected that unknown miscreants killed the boy
and left the body in the banana grove. The left eye of the
boy was gouged and the little finger of his left hand was
cut. The identity of the boy could not be known
immediately.
Police sent the body to Jamalpur General Hospital morgue
for autopsy.
A case was registered with the thana police.
UP member held
BSS, Madaripur
Members of Rapid Action Battalion (RAB) arrested a union
parishad member on charge of taking bribe at Rajoir
upazila of the district on Wednesday.
The arrested was identified as Haider Ali, member of
Amgram union parishad under Rajoir upazila. RAB sources
said, a team of the elite force arrested Haider Ali while
he was taking bribe from one Papiya Begum assuring her to
issue VGF card. He was handed over to Rajoir thana.
Miscreants destroy 4 idols
A Correspondent, Barisal
A group of unidentified miscreants destroyed four idols of
a Hindu Mandir at Agoiljhara upazila on early Thursday
night.
Dinobondhu Biswas, president of the historical Uttar
Chandshi Saat Kaufla Sarbojonin Mandir, said that four
idols of Goddess Shitla, Kali, Durga, and Avatar Radha-Krishna
have been found broken on Thursday morning.
He lodged a case in this connection with Agoiljhara police
station without mentioning any names of the accused.
Md. Alamin, assistant police super of Gournadi circle
visiting the spot said that police were investigating the
incident and trying their best to arrest the culprit.
Man busted along with heroin
UNB, Jessore
A man was arrested along with heroin from a bus near
Malanehi in Kotwali thana Tuesday.
Acting on a secret information, police halted a bus and
arrested Enyet Ali of Sadipur village of Benapole port
thana, along with a packet of 400 grams heroin. He was
taken for interrogation.
41 persons arrested
BSS, Rajshahi
Police, in separate drives, arrested 41 persons on various
charges from different areas in city and nine upazilas of
the district on Wednesday.
Of them 11 were picked up from different areas in the
metropolis while 30 others from nine upazilas of the
district.
Police also seized 14 liters of country-made liquor during
a sudden raid at Khirshik Fakirpara area under Motihar
Police Station in the city. Traffic police lodged 24 cases
under the motor vehicles ordinance and seized a motorbike
without registration during the drives in the city.
104 bottles of phensidyl seized
BSS, Gaibandha
Members of Rapid Action Battalion (RAB) seized 104 bottles
of phensidyl from Madenspara area of Kanchipara union of
Fulchhari upazila in the district on Tuesday.
Sources said, acting on a tip-off, a team of the elite
force led by captain Zakir Siddique conducted a raid at
madenspara area of the upazila and seized the phensidyl
worth about Tk 41,000.
They also arrested four drug peddlers identified as Rezia
Begum, 45, Tafiran Begum, 55, Zarina Begum, 30 and Fatema
Begum, 32. A case was filed with Fulchhari Thana in this
connection.
Editorial
Load-shedding is Playing Havoc with Us
In
the first decade of the 21st century much depends on how much
electricity is available even in a country like Bangladesh:
the agricultural population is dependent on electrical power
for irrigation, for husking, for cold-storage of many
agricultural products; the industries are dependent on
electricity for running their factories; the IT, education,
communication, the media and the numerous offices are entirely
dependent on electricity to provide them power to run their
myriad computers and electronic equipments; the city dwellers
are to an absolute extent dependent on electricity to provide
them with the minimum requirements of utilities so essential
for a tolerable existence in cities - all this is impossible
without adequate, if not uninterrupted electric power supply.
Over the last 15 years every government has been promising us
more electrical energy but those promises have more or less
materialized into personal fortunes for political parties and
a small coterie of individuals in government and in business,
leaving the rest of the nation in the lurch. In the meantime
the population has expanded; industries have exploded and so
have urban and sub-urban areas giving rise to increasing
demands for electrical power which the state is unable to
fulfill. Every government which comes to political power
expansively proposes a solution to our electricity needs but
none has so far been able to provide what it promises. This
Emergency government has been no exception to that; it started
off by proposing nuclear power plants and it ended up with
more load-shedding than ever before.
Power plants are decades old, lacking maintenance and spare
parts and so many of them remain off-line for much of the year
specially during the hot summer seasons. Gas which provides
energy for many of these power plants is at a premium after
massive corrupted misuse over decades, of this rare but
essential natural resource. Establishment or installations of
new power plants have time and again got stuck up in one or
other murky manipulations for undue financial benefits to
undue lobby groups consisting of both homegrown and foreign
businessmen, politicians and a few well-placed government
officials. All this has over decades led us to this dire
condition of our power and energy sector today when the State
is unable to provide the minimum requirement of electricity to
its own people and therefore, the State and its government
have taken recourse to load-shedding in order to provide
electricity to some of the people for some of the time.
This concept of "some of the people for some of the time" is
creating havoc with people's lives and living and is making
everyone extremely unhappy. It is perhaps not misplaced here
to remind the Government of the old adage that "some of the
people can be fooled for some of the time but not all of the
people for all of the time". Right now the "people" are busy
trying to get enough food to survive but soon enough, with the
hoped for "bumper harvests" people will have adequate if not
sufficient food and when that happens they are going to demand
other things such as adequate electricity.
The cruel reality
We
are constrained to write repeatedly on the grim food situation
as it has become a life and death issue for the country's
people, specially the poor. Despite huge imports of food
grains, various measures to stabilise the food market and
start of boro harvesting, the food crisis still persists
prompting the Agriculture Adviser C S Karim and the Army Chief
General Moeen U Ahmed to renew their call upon the people to
take more potatoes along with rice.
The Finance Adviser Mirza Azizul Islam has criticised the
donors role in tackling the global food crisis. Addressing a
symposium organised by UNICEF in the city on Tuesday he said,
the donors have expressed their concerns over the global food
crisis, but were yet to come forward with their pledged
additional assistance to help the poor countries overcome the
crisis. It may be pointed out, United Nations, World Bank, IMF,
FAO, ADB, IDB etc have already assured Bangladesh of
assistance to face the food crisis as over the last one year
prices of wheat have increased by 130 per cent, rice by 75 per
cent and soya by 80 per cent. An agency report from Geneva
said: 'UNICEF has warned that the increase in food prices is
leading not only to empty stomachs but also empty class rooms
in poor countries as parents send their children to work
rather than schools.'
Meanwhile, the government's boro procurement drive has already
started with a target to procure 15 lakh tons of rice and
paddy. The procurement price of paddy has been fixed at Taka
18 per kg and that of rice at Taka 28 per kg.
That the food crisis is still critical is a cruel reality and
it is unlikely to be resolved overnight, although the boro
harvest may bring about some temporary respite. The experts
apprehend that the boro procurement target may not be achieved
as due to low procurement prices of paddy and rice fixed by
the government, the farmers may opt for selling their produce
to mill owners and traders who are most likely to offer more.
Moreover, massive smuggling of paddy and rice may take place
as their prices in the neighbouring country are higher than
the procurement rate here. So the government should keep close
watch on the situation and take necessary steps to stop
possible smuggling of food grains, on the one hand and, on the
other, revise the procurement rate if necessary. Besides, the
government should take up the issue seriously with the donors
and tell them that the hungry people of Bangladesh need food
aid, and not any lip service as it does not serve any purpose.
Analysis
Exacerbating Race and/or
Religion
People died in enormous numbers in 1947 because
of religion, people died in enormous numbers in 1971 because
of race.
Ikram Sehgal
Race
and/or religion have been the cause of both association and
conflict since time immemorial. Economic disparity is a major
discrimination factor. Discrimination leads to anger and
bitterness and invariably leads to strife. Wherever
discrimination can be held in check, associations like the
European Union (EU) succeed. Scene of two of the most
devastating conflicts in history in the 20th century, and
preceded in every earlier century by internecine conflicts
between nations, Europe is a prime example. While they cannot
be totally ignored, for the sake of national unity and racial
cohesion some excesses need to be deliberately glossed over.
Pragmatism has to take precedence over platonic notions.
Created on the basis of religion in 1947 and coming asunder
because of race in 1971, Pakistan remained a democracy only
till the assassination of Liaquat Ali Khan on October 15,
1951. Unlike elected representatives the bureaucrats who took
over were insensitive to emotive issues that concern the
masses; they decided to make an example of the large-scale
Bengali protest against Urdu as the dominant national
language. The "show of force" police firing that killed many
students in Dhaka on Feb 21, 1952 signaled the end of the
finest experiment in nationhood of its time, the inevitable
was delayed till Dec 16, 1971. People died in enormous numbers
in 1947 because of religion, people died in enormous numbers
in 1971 because of race. In a country that has twice witnessed
human sacrifice and devastation because of these two factors,
one has to be extra careful to ensure that these do not be
exacerbated again. The break-up of the country should have
taught us some lessons.
May 12, 2007 is nothing to be proud of. For reasons they now
publicly regret, MQM lost control of their street activists,
dozens died as a result, among them a handful of their own
followers. May 12 was overtaken by the carnage of Oct 18 and
if that was not bad enough, the tragic assassination of
Mohtarma Benazir Bhutto on Dec 27, 2007 was the ultimate
watershed in the country's sordid history. For a brief ugly
moment secession's ugly head reared itself as ethnic Sindhis
took to heart the brutal murder of Ms Benazir, a mass of
have-nots took advantage to create conditions resembling near
anarchy. Asif Zardari put secession down firmly and
immediately. This man since has been constantly trying to
forge national unity, for this alone he should be forgiven all
his alleged transgressions of the past. NAB (and before that
Ehtesab Bureau) took their best shot for over a decade but
failed to establish the accusations against him.
With undeniable charisma and a personality that politicians
would give their right arms for, Imran Khan's "Mr. Clean"
image comes from his now compromised campaign against nepotism
and corruption. May 12, 2007 gave Imran opportunity to be of
consequence on the national stage and he grabbed it. The
timing was unfortunate. MQM's strong-arm tactics in the urban
areas that it dominates notwithstanding, five years period of
governance had mellowed their stance, striving for legitimacy
they were well on the way to joining the national mainstream.
Touching upon a raw nerve Imran got widespread support from
embittered drawing rooms across the country. One really
wonders whether Imran knows (or he even now acknowledges) he
was fueling the streets with fire.
Mian Nawaz Sharif is in a different league altogether, a
popular national leader far above Imran's stature. He may not
have won the outright majority of popular vote in Punjab; he
is the acknowledged leader of the Province. His actions and
rhetoric are hugely symbolic on a national level even though
PML (N) is presently mostly a regional party of the Punjab,
the MQM a regional party of Sindh and ANP a regional party of
NWFP. When Mian Nawaz Sharif and Asfandyar Wali Khan rail
against Altaf Hussain, the acknowledged leader of the Mohajirs,
they inadvertently pit Punjabis and Pathans against Mohajirs.
This may not be their intention but unfortunately symbolism is
the basis of perception. And this perception of ethnicity has
the hallmark of tragedy.
Except when reacting to police violence, till recently the
demonstrations of the lawyers were largely peaceful. Like a
tiger tasting blood becomes a man-eater, the lawyers are now
turning to unprovoked violence more frequently, particularly
in violently stifling dissent, resembling fascist tactics
employed by the Nazis before (and after) they seized power in
Germany in the 30s, using force in the name of democracy to
quell protest. Those sworn to upholding the rule of law have
taken law into their own hands. The motivated and planned
attack on former Minister Dr. Sher Afghan Niazi in Lahore was
brutal and dastardly, earlier my friend Naeem Bokhari has been
violently attacked many times. Senator Farooq Sattar was sent
to hospital, not to mention the brutality inflicted upon
media's Khalil Malik and many others who disagreed with them.
Has the lawyer's movement gone out of hand by the goading of
those who are financing their movement for their own ulterior
political ends? Which brings us to the question as to who is
doing the financing? Senator Aitzaz Ahsan is a respected
friend and one welcomes his immediate resignation (since
withheld) as President Supreme Court Bar Association (SCBA)
when he could not control the "legal" mob beating up the
hapless Sher Afghan.
With the element of race creeping into the lawyer's movement
the implications and consequences for this country are grave
indeed. While those who sow the wind shall reap the whirlwind,
what about the hapless millions who cannot step out of the way
of devastation caused by the ill wind? Blood cycles do not
take long to take hold and the leaders of Pakistan, to
whatever region they belong, owe it to the people of Pakistan,
to exercise maturity and restraint. With Pakistan facing
internal violence, because of both internal and external
pressures, our leaders have a fundamental duty to close the
dangerous fissures instead of adding fuel to the fire for
individual political gain.
His initiatives are certainly not popular in his own primary
constituency; still Asif Zardari has shown great courage. That
is what leadership is all about - the ability and willingness
to take unpalatable decisions in the greater national
interest. Mian Nawaz Sharif is a national leader and not only
the leader of the Punjab. He must now boldly reach out to the
MQM to ensure that what is left of the Quaid's Pakistan is not
divided again. Do not force MQM out in the cold, get them back
into the national mainstream.
Nations are composite of the sum of the individuals who live
in it, race and religion being the focus one cannot play with
the feelings or beliefs of human beings. Political leaders
need to shun demagoguery to attract votes on account of race
and/or religion, political maturity requires that care is
exercised so that rhetoric does not lead to tragedy.
Individuals can never be bigger than institutions, leaders can
never be bigger than the people they want to lead. Stoking
passions, inadvertently or not, amounts to criminal conduct.
Our leaders are on a borderline, it is time to step back from
the abyss.
(The author is an internationally renowned columnist and the
Editor of the Pakistan Defence Journal)
Army Chief's Potato Theory
Shortage of supply,
international price-hike, extreme weather events, and
government incompetence are responsible for the present food
price hikes.
Ripan Kumar Biswas
Altogether
thirteen courses were served at the lunch following the army
chief's meeting with the national editors at the Army
Headquarters on April 8, 2008. The menu included potato soup,
french fries, potato corn curry, potato kopta curry, potato
roller gravy, potato with spinach, potato malai curry, potato
navaratna, potato pudina, and potato pulse.
The key to a successful lunch meeting is making people feel
comfortable. During the lunch, the Army Chief made a 5-point
appeal to the press to help bring down prices of essentials,
hold credible elections, encourage people to diversify their
food habit, improve the rule of law and security and highlight
rural news. Behaving graciously throughout the meal, he
stressed the need for the nation to consume potatoes alongside
rice to alleviate the food crisis and requested the press to
spread the slogan "potatoes alongside rice every day (Bhater
pashe aloo protidin)" throughout the country, which according
to him, already a common slogan in the Army itself.
According to a new WB-IMF report from Washington through a
video conference connecting Dhaka, New Delhi, and Islamabad on
Tuesday, April 8, 2008, sharp rise in food grain prices in
recent times will worsen poverty situation in most of the
South Asian countries including Bangladesh, leaving UN
development goals (fixed in the UN Millennium Development
Goals, a set of eight globally agreed development goals, by
the given timeframe) by 2015 in the developing countries
uncertain. As there's a lot of fear and greed out there, the
Philippines, the largest rice importer, recently urged China,
Japan, and other Asian nations to attend an emergency meeting
on the region's food crisis to try to reverse export curbs
that have driven prices to a record. Governments of those
countries are getting afraid of unrest.
Shortage of supply, international price-hike, extreme weather
events, and government incompetence are responsible for the
present food price hikes. According to the economists'
suggestion, country should try hard to increase the supply of
the most demanded commodity and in the mean time divert the
food habit to an unmet demanded commodity for the time being.
Potatoes are best known for their carbohydrate (approximately
26 grams in a medium potato). Starch is the predominant form
of carbohydrate found in potatoes. A small but significant
portion of the starch in potatoes is resistant to enzymatic
digestion in the stomach and small intestine and, thus,
reaches the large intestine essentially intact.
Many critics felt sad as one of the Generals from an
independent Bangladesh now recommended eating potato. They
might have recalled the history while the then late General
Ayub Khan once advised the East Pakistan (now Bangladesh)
people to eat bread instead of rice. But everybody should have
to keep in mind that the times have changed and the situation
is totally different then East Pakistani when people had been
advised or forced to change their mother language, their
heritage, their culture, and their nationalism; now we are an
independent nation-state.
Potatoes contain a number of important vitamins and minerals.
A medium potato (150g/5.3 oz) with the skin provides 27 mg
vitamin C (45% of the Daily Value (DV)), 620 mg of potassium
(18% of DV), 0.2 mg vitamin B6 (10% of DV) and trace amounts
of thiamin, riboflavin, folate, niacin, magnesium, phosphorus,
iron, and zinc. Moreover, the fiber content of a potato with
skin (2 grams) equals that of many whole grain breads, pastas,
and cereals. In addition to vitamins, minerals and fiber,
potatoes also contain an assortment of phytochemicals, such as
carotenoids, and ployphenols.
A single serving of a potato can provide a person with 40% of
the daily value needed of vitamin C; this will help keep the
body from bruising easily. Also, the potato can give 20% of
the potassium needed for the body each day; it is a needed
element for everyone. It helps stabilize the body when it is
being over worked. Though not likely to cause serious harm,
green skinned potatoes can taste bitter and may result in
temporary digestive discomfort.
The potato, a name derived from the Native American Indian
word "Batata," was first cultivated by the Inca Indians in
Peru over 7,000 years ago. It was introduced to Europe around
1700 and subsequently by European mariners to territories and
ports throughout the world. Historical and genetic evidence
suggests that the potato reached India not very much later
than Europe, taken there by either the British or the
Portuguese. Genetic studies show that all 32 varieties of
potato grown in India derive from the Chilean subspecies. The
earliest unequivocal reference to the potato in India is in an
1847 British journal.
In recent decades, the greatest expansion of potato has been
in Asia, where as of 2007 approximately eighty percent of the
world potato crop is grown. Since the dissolution of the
Soviet Union, China has become the world's largest potato
producer, followed by India. Potato is the world's most widely
grown tuber crop, and the fourth largest food crop in terms of
fresh produce - after rice, wheat, and maize (corn).
Last year, eight million tons of potatoes were produced in
Bangladesh but there is capacity of preservation of only two
million tons. According to the Army Chief, eating potato will
not only help to reduce sharp rise of food grains but also
potato growers will get fair price and will be encouraged to
cultivate potato next year.The United Nations have officially
declared the year 2008 the International Year of the Potato in
order to "increase awareness of the importance of the potato
as a food in developing countries."
Of course, there is nothing tasty, traditional, or important
in compare to rice and people of Bangladesh cannot take
anything instead of rice. But potatoes are one of the most
nutritious staple crops discovered by man and can be
habituated along with rice.
(Ripan Kumar Biswas is a freelance writer based in New York.
Dateline: New York; April 16, 2008. E-mail: Ripan.Biswas@yahoo.com)
Questioning the death penalty
"The Qur'an tells us that the only crimes punishable by death
are crimes against humanity.
Ayesha Khan
London
- We should not wait for Turkey to lead us in understanding
the diversity of Islamic thought on different matters. It is
essential for Muslims to be aware of the many opinions that
are out there and not assume that what they have been told by
imams, scholars or their elders is the only option. Since
there is no priesthood in Islam and no agency between the
individual and God, it is vital for every Muslim to educate
themselves and make up their own minds. Take the death
penalty, for instance, which is part of the legal code in some
Muslim countries. Given that in the Qur'an God equates the
taking of one innocent life with the killing all of humanity (Qur'an
5:32), it seems quite irresponsible not to clarify any
potentially grey areas when it comes to taking someone's life.
The story of 23-year-old Pervez Kambaksh is a case in point.
Kambaksh was tried and convicted for blasphemy in Afghanistan
for distributing literature taken from the web about women's
rights. He will be executed if his appeal is unsuccessful and
the campaign to save him does not succeed.
Despite the view some people have of Islam as a strict and
homogenous ideology, crimes that are understood to be
punishable by death vary depending on who you speak to and
where you are. Even the four main schools of Islamic
jurisprudence have different views on which crimes deserve the
death penalty. The differences come largely from the various
interpretations of the hadith, a collection of sayings and
deeds attributed to the Prophet Muhammad.
Some people may think that Turkey's plans to revise the
existing body of hadith - reinterpreting some while extracting
those that are deemed inauthentic for having suspect sources -
and to re-examine Islamic law for the modern age is an
encouraging step. But can Turkey deliver an Islam that has
universal application? And can the various hadith ever really
be separated from the era and circumstances they were
collected and written in?
I recently talked to a conservative and prominent Wahhabi
scholar, Sheikh Suhaib Hasan, about the crimes punishable by
death. He is a board member of the British Islamic Shari'a
Council and has been accused of having extreme views; even he
admits there is variation in opinion over which crimes are
deserving of the death penalty: "There is a great debate
amongst scholars about whether [for example] apostasy is
punishable by death… No one was killed for apostasy during the
life of the Prophet". Haroon Khan, co-founder of free-minds.org,
a website which seeks to promote the Qur'an as the only source
of religious guidance for Muslims, explains, "The Qur'an tells
us that the only crimes punishable by death are crimes against
humanity. That is mainly for people like Slobodan Milosevic.
[Even] in individual cases of murder, the option of
compensation is given."
The verse from the Qur'an to which Haroon is referring states
that the only crimes punishable by death are "murder or
spreading mischief in the land" (Qur'an 5:32). The problem is
how people choose to interpret these terms. Some consider
"mischief" as large-scale corruption or sedition, while
others, as in the case of Kambaksh, see it as handing out
flyers from the internet.
In the case of Kambaksh, who has not chosen to leave Islam but
only to distribute information, talking about whether or not
he is guilty seems almost like a diversionary tactic. Muslims
must first try to raise awareness of matters of religious
freedom within Islam and debate whether current
interpretations which advocate the death penalty for those who
challenge the authority of the state are valid.
(Ayesha Khan is a documentary filmmaker based in London.
Source: Common Ground News Service, 15 April 2008.Copyright
permission is granted for publication.)
Viewpoints
The
Age of Nonpolarity
What Will Follow U.S. Dominance
In contrast to multipolarity -- which involves
several distinct poles or concentrations of power -- a
nonpolar international system is characterized by numerous
centers with meaningful power.
Richard N. Haass
The
principal characteristic of twenty-first-century international
relations is turning out to be nonpolarity: a world dominated
not by one or two or even several states but rather by dozens
of actors possessing and exercising various kinds of power.
This represents a tectonic shift from the past.
The twentieth century started out distinctly multipolar. But
after almost 50 years, two world wars, and many smaller
conflicts, a bipolar system emerged. Then, with the end of the
Cold War and the demise of the Soviet Union, bipolarity gave
way to unipolarity -- an international system dominated by one
power, in this case the United States. But today power is
diffuse, and the onset of nonpolarity raises a number of
important questions. How does nonpolarity differ from other
forms of international order? How and why did it materialize?
What are its likely consequences? And how should the United
States respond?
NEWER WORLD ORDER
In contrast to multipolarity -- which involves several
distinct poles or concentrations of power -- a nonpolar
international system is characterized by numerous centers with
meaningful power.
In a multipolar system, no power dominates, or the system will
become unipolar. Nor do concentrations of power revolve around
two positions, or the system will become bipolar. Multipolar
systems can be cooperative, even assuming the form of a
concert of powers, in which a few major powers work together
on setting the rules of the game and disciplining those who
violate them. They can also be more competitive, revolving
around a balance of power, or conflictual, when the balance
breaks down.
At first glance, the world today may appear to be multipolar.
The major powers -- China, the European Union (EU), India,
Japan, Russia, and the United States -- contain just over half
the world's people and account for 75 percent of global GDP
and 80 percent of global defense spending. Appearances,
however, can be deceiving. Today's world differs in a
fundamental way from one of classic multipolarity: there are
many more power centers, and quite a few of these poles are
not nation-states. Indeed, one of the cardinal features of the
contemporary international system is that nation-states have
lost their monopoly on power and in some domains their
preeminence as well. States are being challenged from above,
by regional and global organizations; from below, by militias;
and from the side, by a variety of nongovernmental
organizations (NGOs) and corporations. Power is now found in
many hands and in many places.
In addition to the six major world powers, there are numerous
regional powers: Brazil and, arguably, Argentina, Chile,
Mexico, and Venezuela in Latin America; Nigeria and South
Africa in Africa; Egypt, Iran, Israel, and Saudi Arabia in the
Middle East; Pakistan in South Asia; Australia, Indonesia, and
South Korea in East Asia and Oceania. A good many
organizations would be on the list of power centers, including
those that are global (the International Monetary Fund, the
United Nations, the World Bank), those that are regional (the
African Union, the Arab League, the Association of Southeast
Asian Nations, the EU, the Organization of American States,
the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation), and
those that are functional (the International Energy Agency,
OPEC, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, the World Health
Organization). So, too, would states within nation-states,
such as California and India's Uttar Pradesh, and cities, such
as New York, São Paulo, and Shanghai. Then there are the large
global companies, including those that dominate the worlds of
energy, finance, and manufacturing. Other entities deserving
inclusion would be global media outlets (al Jazeera, the BBC,
CNN), militias (Hamas, Hezbollah, the Mahdi Army, the
Taliban), political parties, religious institutions and
movements, terrorist organizations (al Qaeda), drug cartels,
and NGOs of a more benign sort (the Bill and Melinda Gates
Foundation, Doctors Without Borders, Greenpeace). Today's
world is increasingly one of distributed, rather than
concentrated, power.
In this world, the United States is and will long remain the
largest single aggregation of power. It spends more than $500
billion annually on its military -- and more than $700 billion
if the operations in Afghanistan and Iraq are included -- and
boasts land, air, and naval forces that are the world's most
capable. Its economy, with a GDP of some $14 trillion, is the
world's largest. The United States is also a major source of
culture (through films and television), information, and
innovation. But the reality of American strength should not
mask the relative decline of the United States' position in
the world -- and with this relative decline in power an
absolute decline in influence and independence. The U.S. share
of global imports is already down to 15 percent. Although U.S.
GDP accounts for over 25 percent of the world's total, this
percentage is sure to decline over time given the actual and
projected differential between the United States' growth rate
and those of the Asian giants and many other countries, a
large number of which are growing at more than two or three
times the rate of the United States.
GDP growth is hardly the only indication of a move away from
U.S. economic dominance. The rise of sovereign wealth funds --
in countries such as China, Kuwait, Russia, Saudi Arabia, and
the United Arab Emirates -- is another. These
government-controlled pools of wealth, mostly the result of
oil and gas exports, now total some $3 trillion. They are
growing at a projected rate of $1 trillion a year and are an
increasingly important source of liquidity for U.S. firms.
High energy prices, fueled mostly by the surge in Chinese and
Indian demand, are here to stay for some time, meaning that
the size and significance of these funds will continue to
grow. Alternative stock exchanges are springing up and drawing
away companies from the U.S. exchanges and even launching
initial public offerings (IPOs). London, in particular, is
competing with New York as the world's financial center and
has already surpassed it in terms of the number of IPOs it
hosts. The dollar has weakened against the euro and the
British pound, and it is likely to decline in value relative
to Asian currencies as well. A majority of the world's foreign
exchange holdings are now in currencies other than the dollar,
and a move to denominate oil in euros or a basket of
currencies is possible, a step that would only leave the U.S.
economy more vulnerable to inflation as well as currency
crises.
U.S. primacy is also being challenged in other realms, such as
military effectiveness and diplomacy. Measures of military
spending are not the same as measures of military capacity.
September 11 showed how a small investment by terrorists could
cause extraordinary levels of human and physical damage. Many
of the most costly pieces of modern weaponry are not
particularly useful in modern conflicts in which traditional
battlefields are replaced by urban combat zones. In such
environments, large numbers of lightly armed soldiers can
prove to be more than a match for smaller numbers of highly
trained and better-armed U.S. troops.
Power and influence are less and less linked in an era of
nonpolarity. U.S. calls for others to reform will tend to fall
on deaf ears, U.S. assistance programs will buy less, and
U.S.-led sanctions will accomplish less. After all, China
proved to be the country best able to influence North Korea's
nuclear program. Washington's ability to pressure Tehran has
been strengthened by the participation of several western
European countries -- and weakened by the reluctance of China
and Russia to sanction Iran. Both Beijing and Moscow have
diluted international efforts to pressure the government in
Sudan to end its war in Darfur. Pakistan, meanwhile, has
repeatedly demonstrated an ability to resist U.S. entreaties,
as have Iran, North Korea, Venezuela, and Zimbabwe.
The trend also extends to the worlds of culture and
information. Bollywood produces more films every year than
Hollywood. Alternatives to U.S.-produced and disseminated
television are multiplying. Web sites and blogs from other
countries provide further competition for U.S.-produced news
and commentary. The proliferation of information is as much a
cause of nonpolarity as is the proliferation of weaponry.
FAREWELL TO UNIPOLARITY
Charles Krauthammer was more correct than he realized when he
wrote in these pages nearly two decades ago about what he
termed "the unipolar moment." At the time, U.S. dominance was
real. But it lasted for only 15 or 20 years. In historical
terms, it was a moment. Traditional realist theory would have
predicted the end of unipolarity and the dawn of a multipolar
world. According to this line of reasoning, great powers, when
they act as great powers are wont to do, stimulate competition
from others that fear or resent them. Krauthammer, subscribing
to just this theory, wrote, "No doubt, multipolarity will come
in time. In perhaps another generation or so there will be
great powers coequal with the United States, and the world
will, in structure, resemble the pre-World War I era."
But this has not happened. Although anti-Americanism is
widespread, no great-power rival or set of rivals has emerged
to challenge the United States. In part, this is because the
disparity between the power of the United States and that of
any potential rivals is too great. Over time, countries such
as China may come to possess GDPs comparable to that of the
United States. But in the case of China, much of that wealth
will necessarily be absorbed by providing for the country's
enormous population (much of which remains poor) and will not
be available to fund military development or external
undertakings. Maintaining political stability during a period
of such dynamic but uneven growth will be no easy feat. India
faces many of the same demographic challenges and is further
hampered by too much bureaucracy and too little
infrastructure. The EU's GDP is now greater than that of the
United States, but the EU does not act in the unified fashion
of a nation-state, nor is it able or inclined to act in the
assertive fashion of historic great powers. Japan, for its
part, has a shrinking and aging population and lacks the
political culture to play the role of a great power. Russia
may be more inclined, but it still has a largely cash-crop
economy and is saddled by a declining population and internal
challenges to its cohesion.
The fact that classic great-power rivalry has not come to pass
and is unlikely to arise anytime soon is also partly a result
of the United States' behavior, which has not stimulated such
a response. This is not to say that the United States under
the leadership of George W. Bush has not alienated other
nations; it surely has. But it has not, for the most part,
acted in a manner that has led other states to conclude that
the United States constitutes a threat to their vital national
interests. Doubts about the wisdom and legitimacy of U.S.
foreign policy are pervasive, but this has tended to lead more
to denunciations (and an absence of cooperation) than outright
resistance.
A further constraint on the emergence of great-power rivals is
that many of the other major powers are dependent on the
international system for their economic welfare and political
stability. They do not, accordingly, want to disrupt an order
that serves their national interests. Those interests are
closely tied to cross-border flows of goods, services, people,
energy, investment, and technology -- flows in which the
United States plays a critical role. Integration into the
modern world dampens great-power competition and conflict.
But even if great-power rivals have not emerged, unipolarity
has ended. Three explanations for its demise stand out. The
first is historical. States develop; they get better at
generating and piecing together the human, financial, and
technological resources that lead to productivity and
prosperity. The same holds for corporations and other
organizations. The rise of these new powers cannot be stopped.
The result is an ever larger number of actors able to exert
influence regionally or globally.
A second cause is U.S. policy. To paraphrase Walt Kelly's
Pogo, the post-World War II comic hero, we have met the
explanation and it is us. By both what it has done and what it
has failed to do, the United States has accelerated the
emergence of alternative power centers in the world and has
weakened its own position relative to them. U.S. energy policy
(or the lack thereof) is a driving force behind the end of
unipolarity. Since the first oil shocks of the 1970s, U.S.
consumption of oil has grown by approximately 20 percent, and,
more important, U.S. imports of petroleum products have more
than doubled in volume and nearly doubled as a percentage of
consumption. This growth in demand for foreign oil has helped
drive up the world price of oil from just over $20 a barrel to
over $100 a barrel in less than a decade. The result is an
enormous transfer of wealth and leverage to those states with
energy reserves. In short, U.S. energy policy has helped bring
about the emergence of oil and gas producers as major power
centers.
U.S. economic policy has played a role as well. President
Lyndon Johnson was widely criticized for simultaneously
fighting a war in Vietnam and increasing domestic spending.
President Bush has fought costly wars in Afghanistan and Iraq,
allowed discretionary spending to increase by an annual rate
of eight percent, and cut taxes. As a result, the United
States' fiscal position declined from a surplus of over $100
billion in 2001 to an estimated deficit of approximately $250
billion in 2007. Perhaps more relevant is the ballooning
current account deficit, which is now more than six percent of
GDP. This place downward pressure on the dollar, stimulates
inflation, and contributes to the accumulation of wealth and
power elsewhere in the world. Poor regulation of the U.S.
mortgage market and the credit crisis it has spawned has
exacerbated these problems.
The war in Iraq has also contributed to the dilution of the
United States' position in the world. The war in Iraq has
proved to be an expensive war of choice -- militarily,
economically, and diplomatically as well as in human terms.
Years ago, the historian Paul Kennedy outlined his thesis
about "imperial overstretch," which posited that the United
States would eventually decline by overreaching, just as other
great powers had in the past. Kennedy's theory turned out to
apply most immediately to the Soviet Union, but the United
States -- for all its corrective mechanisms and dynamism --
has not proved to be immune. It is not simply that the U.S.
military will take a generation to recover from Iraq; it is
also that the United States lacks sufficient military assets
to continue doing what it is doing in Iraq, much less assume
new burdens of any scale elsewhere.
Finally, today's nonpolar world is not simply a result of the
rise of other states and organizations or of the failures and
follies of U.S. policy. It is also an inevitable consequence
of globalization. Globalization has increased the volume,
velocity, and importance of cross-border flows of just about
everything, from drugs, e-mails, greenhouse gases,
manufactured goods, and people to television and radio
signals, viruses (virtual and real), and weapons.
Globalization reinforces nonpolarity in two fundamental ways.
First, many cross-border flows take place outside the control
of governments and without their knowledge. As a result,
globalization dilutes the influence of the major powers.
Second, these same flows often strengthen the capacities of
nonstate actors, such as energy exporters (who are
experiencing a dramatic increase in wealth owing to transfers
from importers), terrorists (who use the Internet to recruit
and train, the international banking system to move resources,
and the global transport system to move people), rogue states
(who can exploit black and gray markets), and Fortune 500
firms (who quickly move personnel and investments). It is
increasingly apparent that being the strongest state no longer
means having a near monopoly on power. It is easier than ever
before for individuals and groups to accumulate and project
substantial power.
NONPOLAR DISORDER
The increasingly nonpolar world will have mostly negative
consequences for the United States -- and for much of the rest
of the world as well. It will make it more difficult for
Washington to lead on those occasions when it seeks to promote
collective responses to regional and global challenges. One
reason has to do with simple arithmetic. With so many more
actors possessing meaningful power and trying to assert
influence, it will be more difficult to build collective
responses and make institutions work. Herding dozens is harder
than herding a few. The inability to reach agreement in the
Doha Round of global trade talks is a telling example.
Nonpolarity will also increase the number of threats and
vulnerabilities facing a country such as the United States.
These threats can take the form of rogue states, terrorist
groups, energy producers that choose to reduce their output,
or central banks whose action or inaction can create
conditions that affect the role and strength of the U.S.
dollar. The Federal Reserve might want to think twice before
continuing to lower interest rates, lest it precipitate a
further move away from the dollar. There can be worse things
than a recession.
Iran is a case in point. Its effort to become a nuclear power
is a result of nonpolarity. Thanks more than anything to the
surge in oil prices; it has become another meaningful
concentration of power, one able to exert influence in Iraq,
Lebanon, Syria, the Palestinian territories, and beyond, as
well as within OPEC. It has many sources of technology and
finance and numerous markets for its energy exports. And due
to nonpolarity, the United States cannot manage Iran alone.
Rather, Washington is dependent on others to support political
and economic sanctions or block Tehran's access to nuclear
technology and materials. Nonpolarity begets nonpolarity.
Still, even if nonpolarity was inevitable, its character is
not. To paraphrase the international relations theorist Hedley
Bull, global politics at any point is a mixture of anarchy and
society. The question is the balance and the trend. A great
deal can and should be done to shape a nonpolar world. Order
will not just emerge. To the contrary, left to its own
devices, a nonpolar world will become messier over time.
Entropy dictates that systems consisting of a large number of
actors tend toward greater randomness and disorder in the
absence of external intervention.
The United States can and should take steps to reduce the
chances that a nonpolar world will become a cauldron of
instability. This is not a call for unilateralism; it is a
call for the United States to get its own house in order.
Unipolarity is a thing of the past, but the United States
still retains more capacity than any other actor to improve
the quality of the international system. The question is
whether it will continue to possess such capacity.
Energy is the most important issue. Current levels of U.S.
consumption and imports (in addition to their adverse impact
on the global climate) fuel nonpolarity by funneling vast
financial resources to oil and gas producers. Reducing
consumption would lessen the pressure on world prices,
decrease U.S. vulnerability to market manipulation by oil
suppliers, and slow the pace of climate change. The good news
is that this can be done without hurting the U.S. economy.
Strengthening homeland security is also crucial. Terrorism,
like disease, cannot be eradicated. There will always be
people who cannot be integrated into societies and who pursue
goals that cannot be realized through traditional politics.
And sometimes, despite the best efforts of those entrusted
with homeland security, terrorists will succeed. What is
needed, then, are steps to make society more resilient,
something that requires adequate funding and training of
emergency responders and more flexible and durable
infrastructure. The goal should be to reduce the impact of
even successful attacks.
Resisting the further spread of nuclear weapons and unguarded
nuclear materials, given their destructive potential, may be
as important as any other set of undertakings. By establishing
internationally managed enriched-uranium or spent-fuel banks
that give countries access to sensitive nuclear materials, the
international community could help countries use nuclear power
to produce electricity rather than bombs. Security assurances
and defensive systems can be provided to states that might
otherwise feel compelled to develop nuclear programs of their
own to counter those of their neighbors. Robust sanctions --
on occasion backed by armed force -- can also be introduced to
influence the behavior of would-be nuclear states.
Even so, the question of using military force to destroy
nuclear or biological weapons capabilities remains. Preemptive
strikes -- attacks that aim to stop an imminent threat -- are
widely accepted as a form of self-defense. Preventive strikes
-- attacks on capabilities when there is no indication of
imminent use -- are something else altogether. They should not
be ruled out as a matter of principle, but nor should they be
depended on. Beyond questions of feasibility, preventive
strikes run the risk of making a nonpolar world less stable,
both because they might actually encourage proliferation
(governments could see developing or acquiring nuclear weapons
as a deterrent) and because they would weaken the
long-standing norm against the use of force for purposes other
than self-defense.
Combating terrorism is also essential if the nonpolar era is
not to turn into a modern Dark Ages. There are many ways to
weaken existing terrorist organizations by using intelligence
and law enforcement resources and military capabilities. But
this is a loser's game unless something can be done to reduce
recruitment. Parents, religious figures, and political leaders
must delegitimize terrorism by shaming those who choose to
embrace it. And more important, governments must find ways of
integrating alienated young men and women into their
societies, something that cannot occur in the absence of
political and economic opportunity.
Trade can be a powerful tool of integration. It gives states a
stake in avoiding conflict because instability interrupts
beneficial commercial arrangements that provide greater wealth
and strengthen the foundations of domestic political order.
Trade also facilitates development, thereby decreasing the
chance of state failure and alienation among citizens. The
scope of the World Trade Organization must be extended through
the negotiation of future global arrangements that further
reduce subsidies and both tariff and nontariff barriers.
Building domestic political support for such negotiations in
developed countries will likely require the expansion of
various safety nets, including portable health care and
retirement accounts, education and training assistance, and
wage insurance. These social policy reforms are costly and in
some cases unwarranted (the cause of job loss is far more
likely to be technological innovation than foreign
competition), but they are worth providing nonetheless given
the overall economic and political value of expanding the
global trade regime.
A similar level of effort might be needed to ensure the
continued flow of investment. The goal should be to create a
World Investment Organization that would encourage capital
flows across borders so as to minimize the chances that
"investment protectionism" gets in the way of activities that,
like trade, are economically beneficial and build political
bulwarks against instability. A WIO could encourage
transparency on the part of investors, determine when national
security is a legitimate reason for prohibiting or limiting
foreign investment, and establish a mechanism for resolving
disputes.
Finally, the United States needs to enhance its capacity to
prevent state failure and deal with its consequences. This
will require building and maintaining a larger military, one
with greater capacity to deal with the sort of threats faced
in Afghanistan and Iraq. In addition, it will mean
establishing a civilian counterpart to the military reserves
that would provide a pool of human talent to assist with basic
nation-building tasks. Continuing economic and military
assistance will be vital in helping weak states meet their
responsibilities to their citizens and their neighbors.
THE NOT-SO-LONELY SUPERPOWER
Multilateralism will be essential in dealing with a nonpolar
world. To succeed, though, it must be recast to include actors
other than the great powers. The UN Security Council and the
G-8 (the group of highly industrialized states) need to be
reconstituted to reflect the world of today and not the
post-World War II era. A recent meeting at the United Nations
on how best to coordinate global responses to public health
challenges provided a model. Representatives of governments,
UN agencies, NGOs, pharmaceutical companies, foundations,
think tanks, and universities were all in attendance. A
similar range of participants attended the December 2007 Bali
meeting on climate change. Multilateralism may have to be less
formal and less comprehensive, at least in its initial phases.
Networks will be needed alongside organizations. Getting
everyone to agree on everything will be increasingly
difficult; instead, the United States should consider signing
accords with fewer parties and narrower goals. Trade is
something of a model here, in that bilateral and regional
accords are filling the vacuum created by a failure |